5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13

Chicago Bears Rushing Offense

The over/under for Sunday's game between the Bears and the 49ers is just 43.5, so we want to avoid over-investing, but there are just some interesting options available on both sides. In addition to Kap for the 49ers, we need to give Jordan Howard dap for the Bears.

With all of the injuries going on around him, you'd expect Howard's efficiency to take a dip. Instead, he's currently 10th in Rushing NEP per carry and 14th in Success Rate of the 38 running backs with at least 80 carries. The team has recognized this by giving him at least 15 carries in four straight games, and his snap rate was an acceptable 66.3% last week. Despite a mid-season blip, Howard is the clear lead back here.

As you've obviously noticed by now, the opposing 49ers are not so hot against the rush. They're dead last, in fact, allowing a 100-yard rusher in eight of their past 10 games. This list includes Fozzy Whittaker, Christine Michael, and Jacquizz Rodgers, none of whom are the top backs on their current respective teams. Howard's in a good spot to continue his impressive rookie season.

An obvious counterpoint here would be to point out the 49ers' Week 12 performance when they held Jay Ajayi to 18 carries for 45 yards, dashing DFS dreams everywhere. If they could stifle the formerly-scorching Ajayi, who's to say they haven't turned a corner?

While those concerns are fine, Ajayi was not in a spot conducive to success in that game. The Miami Dolphins were playing without their starting left tackle, left guard, and center, and Ajayi has basically only excelled this year when all three have been healthy. That flop was more about the Dolphins than it was the 49ers.

This isn't to say Howard's offensive line is the model of fitness as he was without right guard Kyle Long and left guard Josh Sitton in Week 12. Even with those two in street clothes, though, Howard had 0.04 Rushing NEP per carry and a 44.4% Success Rate against the Tennessee Titans, and Sitton was able to get in a limited practice Wednesday. The Bears also got right tackle Bobby Massie back from injury in Week 12, so they're trending the right direction. That's not an issue for Howard here.

The one concern Howard does have is the efficiency of his quarterback, Matt Barkley. If Barkley were to struggle and dig the Bears into a hole, they may have to abandon the run, leaving Howard as an afterthought.

Vegas doesn't necessarily see that happening. The Bears are one-point favorites, indicating a close game is on tap. Even if the Bears fall behind, things should at least stay tight enough to allow them to keep leaning on the ground game. Barkley's the biggest question mark associated with Howard here, and it hurts his viability for cash games, but the volume and matchup help keep Howard in play.

This is one of many games this week where weather may be a factor. Current projected wind speeds are 16 miles per hour, and there's some potential rain in the forecast. The last thing Barkley needs in his second career start is another potential detriment to efficiency. But as long as things don't get worse by Sunday morning, we can likely rely on Howard as a high-upside option in what could be a sneakily fun game.