5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs Passing Offense
Let's quickly recap the reasons we love the Detroit Lions this week. They're playing in a dome in a game with a massive over/under, and although they may be in negative game script, they'll be getting high volume against a lower-tier pass defense. Those are a lot of reasons for love for one team.
The Kansas City Chiefs have the exact same scenario.
Sure, we don't think of the Chiefs in the same light as the Lions, but if we're going to dig one, we should probably at least entertain the notion of using the other. The over/under is lower, and the Atlanta Falcons aren't quite as bad as the Saints, but there's still plenty working in the Chiefs' favor.
The Falcons currently rank 23rd against the pass overall and 24th from Week 7 on. That's not great to begin with, but most of that sample includes having cornerback Desmond Trufant on the field. Trufant, however, is out for the season with a torn pectoral, meaning an already inefficient secondary is without its best player. That's bad news, bruh.
Obviously, the Chiefs' passing offense isn't anything to write home about with Alex Smith ranking 19th in per-drop back efficiency, a very Alex-Smith-like output. But the team has done well when they've been in solid matchups this year.
Smith has played five games this year against teams ranked 20th or worse against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. The table below shows how he has performed in those matchups relative to the superior foes, four of which have ranked seventh or better.
| Pass Defense Ranking | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th or Better | 214 | -6.98 | -0.03 | 44.39% |
| 20th or Worse | 156 | 40.30 | 0.26 | 48.72% |
The Falcons fit this mold even when Trufant was healthy. Now that he's out, we should have even a bit more confidence in rolling out the Chiefs.
I won't blame you if you're not chomping at the bit to inject Smith into your tournament lineups. He has topped 20 FanDuel points only twice this year, so that hesitancy makes sense. But his pass-catchers should be a different story, starting with Travis Kelce.
Through the first six games of the season, Kelce never had more than eight targets in a game. Over the past five games, he has surpassed that mark three times, including a career-high 15 targets in Week 12. His target market share over that time is 25.5%, easily tops among tight ends. The Falcons have allowed at least 10 targets to a tight end on four separate occasions this year, so even if Jeremy Maclin's able to return, Kelce's a top-flight option at the position.
Speaking of Maclin, he was able to practice Wednesday for the first time since his groin injury, stirring optimism that he'll be back on the field. This is something to monitor for two reasons. First, if he's back, we can expect increased efficiency from Smith. Second, if Maclin sits, we can indulge the masses and chat up Tyreek Hill.
Hill's snap rate has been a source of frustration the entire season as it hovered below 30% early on. Since Maclin's injury, though, he has been above 60% in all three games, topping 67.9% each of the past two weeks. Given Hill's production, it'll be hard to faze him out once Maclin returns. He has at least five targets in five straight games (including two above 10), meaning Hill may finally be worth the risk that comes with a player who sees the field as rarely as he does.
