The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 13

Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has an NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from the week with big value swings in one category, but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount sets the tone by rumbling for a 43-yard touchdown in the first quarter (WP: +10.41, NEP: +6.22).
9. Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton hits wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. for 55-yard end zone strike (WP: +14.00, NEP: +6.62).
8. Minnesota Vikings punt returner Adam Thielen gets stripped by Dallas Cowboys gunner Kyle Wilber, who recovers on the Minnesota 8-yard line (WP: +41.22, NEP: +5.52).
7. Arizona Cardinals defensive end Calais Campbell strips Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, and linebacker Markus Golden scoops the fumble (WP: +22.86, NEP: +6.17).
6. Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Lawrence Timmons picks off New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning in the red zone, returning the ball 58 yards (WP: +14.76, NEP: +7.23).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!