Week 15 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 41.0
Bills Implied Team Total: 25.50
Browns Implied Team Total: 15.50
As a general rule, you should probably avoid games with an over/under near the 40-point line. However, this game could be the exception, as the Buffalo Bills are projected for 25.5 points, which makes them one of just five teams on this slate projected for over 25 points.
In addition to having the league's worst defense (dead last in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play), the Cleveland Browns have a bottom-five offense, ranking fifth-worst in Adjusted Offensive NEP per play.
Similar to the Niners, Cleveland has decided to aid their horrendous defense by playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, which when combined with an inefficient offense, leaves their defense on the field for far too long. As a result, opposing teams get extra plays against a worn-down and inept defense, which is a formula for fantasy goodness.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
FanDuel Price: $9,000
According to our NEP metrics, no back has done more for his team's cause with his carries than Lesean McCoy, who ranks first in Rushing NEP per play.
The Browns are known for their struggles against the pass, ranking dead last in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP, but they're not much better against the run, ranking sixth-worst. They've allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backs, too. If not for the 49ers, the Browns would easily be known as the most fantasy-friendly defense to opposing backs.
If the Bills put it on the win-less Browns, as they are expected to, game script should set up very well for Shady. His numbers in two seasons with Buffalo back up the research Raybon put in regarding how much positive game script benefits running backs.
In games Buffalo has won by 10 or more points over the past two seasons, McCoy has averaged 16.7 carries for 91 yards and 0.9 touchdowns, as opposed to 16 carries for 73 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. In four games they've won by double digits, those numbers have jumped up to 18.3 carries for 118 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 23.6 FanDuel points.
Buffalo Bills Defense
FanDuel Price: $5,100
Buffalo D/ST comes in as the most-expensive defense on the slate, and for good reason, as they draw a dream matchup. No team has allowed more sacks than Cleveland, who also ranks in the bottom in offensive turnovers. Vegas has them projected for a slate-low 15.5 points, and in addition to being an excellent standalone play, Buffalo pairs nicely with McCoy from a correlation standpoint.
