5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15

Dallas Cowboys Rushing Offense

You'll notice that Ezekiel Elliott isn't among the brutally obvious plays in Week 15. If not for a couple of "down" performances in the past two weeks, would that be the case?

The Dallas Cowboys are seven-point favorites at home as they prepare to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That's a script that sets up for plenty of usage for Elliott, and Tampa Bay's defense hasn't been overly successful against the rush recently.

From Week 8 on, the Bucs rank 27th against the rush, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. This puts them behind the Browns and only two spots ahead of the San Francisco 49ers. This is despite having stud defensive tackle Gerald McCoy active in each of those games, and it has pushed the Buccaneers all the way down to 24th against the rush in season-long metrics.

These struggles have been allowed to fly a bit under the radar because not many backs have seen heavy enough volume against them. No running back has exceeded 17 carries against them in this span, and they've allowed just one rushing touchdown. Volume is largely dependent on the team and the game script, and touchdowns can be fluky, so they're not great gauges of what to expect going forward.

They also both favor a guy like Elliott.

Elliott hasn't had fewer than 15 rushing attempts in any game this year, and he hasn't been below 20 since Week 9. He's averaging 22.1 carries for 107.1 yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game, so we can firmly state that volume isn't an issue.

The Cowboys' implied team total this week is 26.50, the second-highest mark on Sunday's main slate. Elliott has 35.71% of the team's red-zone opportunities this year, and that increases to 44.44% over the past three games. If the Cowboys are going to score points, you know Elliott's going to be involved, so we can also say that touchdowns don't figure to be an issue.

Basically, Elliott has everything we want in a running back -- including a dope matchup -- and his $8,500 price tag on FanDuel is the lowest it has been since Week 9. If you're looking for a tournament pivot off of McCoy, Johnson, and Bell, Elliott's likely your best target.