5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15
Green Bay Packers Passing Offense
With everybody paying up at running back, the highest-priced signal-callers aren't going to carry a whole lot of ownership. Most of them are in tough matchups, and Matt Ryan may be limited by an opponent in San Francisco that can't keep a game close.
That brings us to Aaron Rodgers. He may not be perfect, but he for darn sure fits our pursuit for a high-priced, high-upside quarterback.
The Green Bay Packers are going up against the Chicago Bears, and that's a matchup the Packers can most certainly win. They're a top-10 passing offense, and the Bears are 18th on the defensive side. That's before you bake in the losses the Bears have experienced at linebacker, potentially making this matchup even juicier than it appears on paper.
Rodgers' season-long efficiency metrics are fine, but they're not Earth-shattering compared to what we've come to expect out of him. He's sixth in Passing NEP per drop back and 13th in Success Rate, above-average marks, for sure, but not Rodgers-esque.
The problem is those numbers include Rodgers' early-season struggles, and he has been a radically different passer of late.
Things seemed to turn around for Rodgers in a Week 7 victory against these same Bears when he threw for 326 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Here's a peep at how his season breaks down from that game on.
| Split | Drop Backs | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Five Games | 190 | 0.13 | 45.79% | 19.96 |
| Past Eight Games | 338 | 0.29 | 50.00% | 25.48 |
In that eight-game span, Rodgers has dipped below 20 points on FanDuel just once, and he has had at least 29 points three times. He doesn't need an overwhelmingly saucy matchup to crush, and with the Bears' losses on defense, they likely qualify.
The one thing that could deter this would be weather. The current projection is for 16 mile-per-hour winds, a mark that would at least lower our expectation for Rodgers and his wide receivers. Once it gets any higher, it's time to completely divest and look elsewhere. But if the winds were to die down, we could lock and load Rodgers and company at will.
A conversation about stacking the Packers must always start with Jordy Nelson. He has a 27.23% target market share the past five weeks, and his season-long 31.40% red-zone market share ranks third in the league. He's got safety, upside, and an acceptable price tag at $7,700. That'll get the job done.
This isn't to completely rule out Davante Adams, whose newfound love of efficiency has made him a delightful fantasy asset. He ranks 13th in Reception NEP per target of the 48 receivers with at least 75 targets, ahead of Nelson in 18th and Randall Cobb in 36th.
Adams' targets are less steady than Nelson's, but he does have at least 100 yards receiving in three of his past five games and four of the past eight, so upside isn't an issue here, either.
