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Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 15

Matt Blair  —  @grizzlyblair Dec 15th, 2016
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Avoid Doug Martin as a Heavy Underdog

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seven-point road underdogs versus the Dallas Cowboys.

Generally, you want to avoid running backs when they are underdogs of more than a touchdown because their team is likely going to abandon the run to keep up with the opposing team. Bookmakers are predicting a comfortable Dallas win and Bucs running back Doug Martin has struggled in these situations.

In 14 career games as an underdog of 7 or more points, Martin has averaged 8.83 half-PPR points per game.

Tampa has been hot lately and is 8-5 against the spread this season. However, Dallas is 9-4 against the spread and 7-1 against the spread in non-division games.

The man formerly known as Muscle Hamster is priced at $6,500, the 16th-highest price among running backs on FanDuel. At that price, he appears to be a value but lacks the upside to be worthy of a start in any format.

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