Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned From Week 15
You Can't Trust Adrian Peterson in Week 16
It goes without saying that Adrian Peterson has had one of the most prolific careers among running backs in NFL history. He ranks 16th all-time in rushing yards while missing nearly two full seasons of play. He's won the rushing title three times, and he came a mere nine yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record in 2012.
However, the 2016 season has been an abject disaster in the few games he's actually played in. By looking at the numbers behind the numbers, it looks even worse.
We utilize our signature in-house metric at numberFire, Net Expected Points (NEP), to add context to traditional box-score statistics. NEP quantifies true player performance above-or-under expectation using down-and-distance data and historical performance in identical scenarios. You can learn more about NEP by checking out our glossary.
Here's a look at Peterson's numbers throughout his career.
| Year | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Rush | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 239 | 19.01 | 0.08 | 42.26% |
| 2008 | 364 | 2.49 | 0.01 | 42.58% |
| 2009 | 315 | -12.41 | -0.04 | 41.90% |
| 2010 | 283 | -0.47 | 0 | 41.34% |
| 2011 | 211 | 19.57 | 0.09 | 40.76% |
| 2012 | 348 | 36.31 | 0.1 | 43.10% |
| 2013 | 280 | 7.59 | 0.03 | 40.36% |
| 2014 | 21 | -4.38 | -0.21 | 33.33% |
| 2015 | 327 | 3.82 | 0.01 | 40.67% |
| 2016 | 37 | -14.42 | -0.39 | 24.32% |
Peterson's clearly having the worst year of his career.
The sample size is very small and it's doubtful his insanely low efficiency of -0.39 Rushing NEP per rush would hold steady if he had a full season under his belt. And he'd certainly improve on an abysmal 24.32% Rushing Success Rate, which is the percentage of rushes that contribute positively to NEP.
But he didn't look good in his return to action against the Indianapolis Colts, who rank 23rd in the league against the run per our numbers, generating a mere 22 yards on 6 carries to go with a fumble. It doesn't get easier next week, as the Minnesota Vikings are on the road against the Green Bay Packers, who rank ninth against the run.
The Packers' offense has also been clicking lately, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Vikings fell into an early deficit and had to abandon the run. Even if that didn't happen, the Vikings' offensive line is so bad that it's hard to believe even Peterson can overcome it, particularly in a tough matchup.
If you own Peterson, you may not feel comfortable dropping him because of the fear of missing out on a big game. However, all available data indicates you won't be able to trust him for the rest of this season, particularly when a fantasy football championship is on the line.
