Market Share Report: DeAndre Hopkins Shows Flickers of Life
Target Market Shares
1. DeAndre Hopkins Shows Flickers of Life
DeAndre Hopkins has been dead to us about fifty-'leven times this year, so why not set him up for another disappointment in Week 16?
With the benching of Brock Osweiler, there was reason to expect a change for Hopkins, and he got it from Osweiler's replacement, Tom Savage. Hopkins had 17 targets in the game, 15 of which came after Savage entered. Will Fuller and Ryan Griffin both had six targets after Savage entered, but no other player had more than two. Hopkins was in his own tier from a usage perspective.
With Savage starting in Week 16, we should at least be interested in Hopkins. It's too early to say whether or not Savage is a good quarterback, but he doesn't need to be good to be an improvement. Hopkins showed last year that he can thrive with below-average quarterback play, and it's why he needs to be on our radar entering this week.
2. Rishard Matthews Continues to Ascend
Rishard Matthews has been out of the public eye for a while now. The Tennessee Titans had a bye in Week 13, and they faced the black hole of wide receiver production known as the Denver Broncos after that. We shouldn't be surprised that he popped back into relevancy this week, but we absolutely need to note it.
Matthews finished Sunday with 10 targets out of just 29 Marcus Mariota throws, three more looks than any other player on the field. This puts Matthews' target market share up to a whopping 27.12% over the past six games. Even on a low-volume passing offense, there's a ton of value in that.
The Titans have a tough matchup this week against a talented Jacksonville Jaguars secondary, but that doesn't mean we should necessarily exclude Matthews from our thought processes. He's just $5,700 on FanDuel, a price that doesn't come close to reflecting his current role. With that discrepancy being in place, he's a guy we should feel comfortable targeting if we need some salary relief.
3. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry Are Knee-Capping Each Other
Week 16 features a matchup between the San Diego Chargers and the Cleveland Browns, which means two things: we need the Chargers' running back -- whomever that may be -- and we want to lather ourselves in exposure to the tight end. The running back position should sort itself out as we learn more about Melvin Gordon's health, but such clarity is simply a pipe dream at tight end.
In the 13 games that Hunter Henry has played this year, Antonio Gates has never played more than 75.3% of the snaps, and he hasn't exceeded 63.6% in the past four weeks. Henry leads all tight ends with a 46.15% red zone target market share the past five games, but -- because of Gates -- he hasn't had more than five total targets in any of those. If they were one player, they'd be baller. They're not, though, and it's taking a buzzsaw to their reliability.
The Browns have allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends this year, and Gates is just three touchdowns from being the all-time leader in the category among tight ends. You've got incentive to go after him in this spot. But with Henry still playing a big role -- especially when the team gets in close -- it may be best to allow others to chase the narrative and matchup and look for reliability elsewhere.