Week 16 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under: 52.5
Saints Implied Team Total: 27.75
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 24.75

Coming in just behind the Raiders-Colts game for the highest over/under on the slate is this matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which has an over/under set at 52.5 points. Seven games played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season have yielded an average of 61.3 points. Last season, the average point total at the Superdome was 64 points. So, it should come as no surprise that this is expected to be a high-scoring affair.

Both teams rank in the top-10 in offensive pace of play, as well as total plays per game. This should be a high-scoring, fast-paced affair, with a chance to produce plenty of fantasy goodness.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $8,500

Drew Brees bounced back in a huge way last week, throwing for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals. He'll look to build on that this week at home, where he has averaged a video game-like 343 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns over the past four seasons. If you look at just home games that New Orleans has won by three or more points during that span, it really gets gross. In 18 said games, Brees has averaged 358 passing yards for 3.1 touchdowns.

Brees has also performed notably better in projected shootouts during that time. In games with at least a 52.5-point over/under since 2013, Brees has averaged 324 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns, as opposed to 319 yards and 2.2 touchdowns in other games. In home games projected for a 52.5-point over/under, those averages jump to 369 passing yards for 2.8 touchdowns.

No matter how you slice it, game script sets up beautifully for another strong game from Brees in this one. There are many fun ways to stack this game, and most of them start with him.

Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $7,100

In the three games since speaking out about his role in the offense, Brandin Cooks has seen 9, 10, and 8 targets. Most recently, he turned those targets into 186 yards and two scores, reminding us all of his tremendous upside. This week, he'll return to his home turf, where he has averaged 81.4 yards and 0.7 touchdowns in his career, as opposed to 59.9 yards and 0.35 touchdowns in all other games.

Cooks has played in just three home games with a 52.5-point over/under in his career, so instead let's examine home games he's played in with at least a 50-point over/under. In such games, he has seen his averages jump to 93.8 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.

It's tough to ever pinpoint the right pairing option with Brees, but if choosing one, Cooks' home/road splits would suggest he is the most likely for a big game here.

Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Price: $5,600

Mike Evans is certainly the highest-upside way to game-stack this one, but things start to get real pricey when you pair him with Brees, and Evans has seen eight or fewer targets in three straight games. Instead, we'll focus on Cameron Brate, who has the same amount of targets as Evans over Tampa Bay's last three games.

Brate has averaged 10.6 FanDuel points since taking over as the starting tight end in Week 3, which would rank fourth among tight ends on this slate. He's averaged six targets per game during that span, but what has been most impressive is his usage in the red zone. He has caught all seven of his touchdowns (most among tight ends) in the red zone, which shouldn't be surprising, considering he is tied with Evans for the team lead in targets from inside the 20- and 10-yard line. In fact, no tight end has more targets from inside the 10-yard line than Brate this season.

Albeit in small sample size, Brate has played much better when faced with negative game scripts this season. Since becoming the starter, Brate has averaged 4.6 catches on 7.4 targets for 50.2 yards and 1 touchdown in games Tampa Bay lost by three or more points, as opposed to 3.7 catches on 4.8 targets for 44.1 yards and 0.2 touchdowns in all other games.