Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 16

Start the Bills Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 16, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Buffalo Bills are 3.5-point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins, and this Saturday's tilt is interesting because of the dwindling game total. The game opened at a relatively low total of 43 and has already dropped to 41 points.

Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. In that same year, if the total dropped 2 points or more throughout the week, defenses involved scored an average of 8.3 fantasy points per game.

Weather in Buffalo could be a concern for this game. Our weather page shows a projected wind speed of 16 miles per hour.

The Buffalo D/ST is priced at $4,600, tied for the 13th-most expensive D/ST, making them a cost-effective option for both cash games and tournaments.