5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
Oakland Raiders Rushing Offense
If we're ranking games for this weekend by "fun" factor, it doesn't get much better than this tilt between the Oakland Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders are headed to the playoffs for the first time since 2002, and the over/under is 53, the highest of the slate. You're going to want exposure to this game, and Latavius Murray is a great piece to that puzzle.
The Colts have a bit of a strange rush defense. They were ranked as low as 30th at one point this year in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, but they've now scooted all the way up to 19th. This could be an indication of some improvements to the defense.
When you look more closely at the game logs, that's likely not the case.
Over their past three games, the Colts have twice held an opponent to fewer than 40 rushing yards. Those two opponents were the New York Jets -- whom the Colts slaughtered from the jump -- and the Minnesota Vikings, who were using a 31-year-old running back who had just come off of knee surgery and is averaging 1.9 yards per attempt this year. That's probably not the best sample from which to draw conclusions.
Sandwiched around there are a pair of games in which the Mr. Hyde of this defense came out. They allowed Le'Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers to gash them for 148 yards on Thanksgiving, and the Houston Texans went for 185 on the ground in Week 14. Both Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue had over 50 yards rushing in that one, and they don't have an offensive line as filthy as the Raiders'.
Although Murray struggled pretty mightily with his efficiency last year, 2016 has been a different story. He's currently fifth in Rushing NEP per carry of the 43 running backs with at least 80 carries, and he's 14th in Success Rate. In eight games since returning from injury, Murray is averaging 16.9 carries for 70.6 yards per game while seeing at least four targets five times.
With Murray, though, the main attraction is his red zone usage. He has at least four red zone carries in six of his past eight games, allowing him to sit second in red zone carries per game over his past five. It shouldn't be a shock that he has 12 rushing touchdowns and three multi-touchdown games this year.
It's important to note, though, that Murray's viability is limited to tournaments after what happened in Week 15. There, he fumbled on back-to-back drives, and his snap rate fell to 50% after three straight games above 66.0%. If you need options in cash, it's best to go with the safety of LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, or Ty Montgomery. But when we're talking tourneys, they don't come much better than this dude right here.
