5 Reasons Why the Patriots Will Win Super Bowl LI
2. The Defense Neutralizes the Falcons' Biggest Strength
It has been borderline impossible to stop the Falcons' deep passing game this season. Very few teams have done it. The Patriots' regular season indicates they could potentially do so.
As detailed previously, Matt Ryan had absolutely absurd metrics on deep passes this year, pumping out double the efficiency on a per-attempt basis than the league-average passer. The Patriots, though, were among the best teams at stopping these rainbows.
Here's a chart from that previously-linked piece that compares Ryan's metrics on deep passes to the Patriots' defense and the league average. Success Rate is the percentage of attempts that result in an increase in expected points.
| Passer | Attempts | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 91 | 1.04 | 57.73% |
| Patriots' Opponents | 131 | 0.27 | 38.93% |
| League Average | -- | 0.49 | 41.25% |
Both assets in this game were far from being average in the most positive sense possible. While it means the Falcons will give the Patriots' defense a test, it could also mean Ryan and Julio Jones have trouble connecting in their most lethal fashion. If the Patriots continue dominating here, the Falcons will need to find other ways to move the ball.
