Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Positional ADP: WR62 | Projected Finish: WR72
The Baltimore Ravens lost a lot of targets from their 2016 roster. That made Breshad Perriman an intriguing player -- right until the moment the team signed Jeremy Maclin.
Joe Redemann explained what we can expect from Maclin. In short, despite last season's woes, he's a good wideout with a history of success with coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. When both were in Philadelphia (from 2009 to 2012), Maclin averaged 67.5 Reception NEP (basically league average) per season.
Looking just at 2016, Maclin out-performed Perriman despite playing injured.
| Year | Player | Games | Rec | Targets | Reception NEP/Target | Reception Success Rate | Total NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Breshad Perriman | 16 | 33 | 66 | 0.62 | 72.7% | 40.5 |
| 2016 | Jeremy Maclin | 12 | 44 | 76 | 0.57 | 75.0% | 42.1 |
Perriman was marginally better on a per-target basis, but the difference in quarterback play may account for that. As Redemann notes, Perriman was below average among Ravens receivers. A healthy Maclin could easily out-pace him in 2017.
Instead Try
Ted Ginn Jr. makes for an interesting pivot. He was the WR44 last year on just 95 targets from a lackluster Cam Newton. Now, Ginn is playing with Drew Brees, one of the most fantasy-friendly quarterbacks in the league. The New Orleans Saints also run a high-volume offense, meaning Ginn could see a decent amount of targets even if his market share isn't great. We project him well ahead of Perriman, with Ginn as our WR51.
