Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Mike Gillislee, RB, New England Patriots
Positional ADP: RB22 | Projected Finish: RB35
Mike Gillislee replaces LeGarrette Blount on the New England Patriots, so he must be a candidate for a great season, right? Maybe, maybe not.
Gillislee would be a lot more exciting if the Patriots didn't also add Rex Burkhead and re-sign James White to go along with Dion Lewis. Remember all the fun we used to have trying to guess if the next game would be a "Vereen game" or a "Ridley game?" Welcome to the four-man version of that nightmare.
Is there any way we can get a sense of how the Patriots value their running backs? Courtesy of Over the Cap, we get some intel.
| Player | Total Value | Average Per Year | Total 2017 Cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| James White | $12,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $4,690,000 |
| Mike Gillislee | $6,400,000 | $3,200,000 | $3,500,000 |
| Rex Burkhead | $3,150,000 | $3,150,000 | $1,100,000 |
| Dion Lewis | $3,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $600,000 |
| James Develin | $2,450,000 | $1,225,000 | $500,000 |
Pats coach Bill Belichick will play whoever he thinks helps the most in any given week, but from an organizational point of view, the team has committed almost as much to James White as they have to the next three backs combined.
On the field, it's not clear that Gillislee is better than his competition, although he was historically efficient last season. Here are the career averages for the Patriots' four top backs.
| Player | Rushing NEP/ per rush | Rush Success Rate | Reception NEP / target | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 0.20 | 52% | -0.24 | 47% |
| Mike Gillislee | 0.15 | 56% | 0.22 | 53% |
| James White | -0.13 | 41% | 0.41 | 60% |
| Rex Burkhead | -0.66 | 29% | 0.33 | 64% |
It's not clear to me that Gillislee has what it takes to earn enough work to justify his ADP.
Instead Try
Ty Montgomery. We project him to finish as RB21, well ahead of Gillislee. Montgomery also plays in a great offense, and while Green Bay brought in some competition, it's all of the marginal late-round variety.
