10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates in 2017
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
DeAndre Hopkins. Again. Man. He just seems overvalued.
The WR14 in 2014 and the WR4 in 2015, Hopkins finished as the WR26 in 2016. In terms of points per game, those ranks were WR18, WR5, and WR33.
Yes, he played alongside Brock Osweiler, but are we certain that Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson will unlock a top-12 season for Nuk? That's pretty much what you'll need from him because he's the WR13 in ADP this year.
Our Net Expected Points model identified Nuk as a guy who should've scored more touchdowns (6.67) than he did (4) in 2016. But even in 2015, when he scored 11 times, he "should've" scored 10.70 times. But in 2013 and 2014, he underperformed in the touchdown column by around 3.27 scores.
That could mean regression is in his favor, or it could simply mean that he's not a go-to option in the red zone. He had 9 red zone targets in 2016, 22 in 2015, 12 in 2014, and 11 in 2013, so that's something.
Houston has ranked 27th or worse in Adjusted Passing NEP per play in the past two seasons, which is softened by the fact that Hopkins has seen 192 and 151 targets in the past two seasons, but the offensive concerns and red zone usage suggest Hopkins is on another high-volume, low-touchdown path.
As a WR2, that's fine, but Hopkins is being drafted as a a borderline number-one. It's tough to see how he lives up to that price, and that makes him a prime bust candidate.
