The 7 Riskiest Players in Fantasy Football
2. Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee Titans
Eric Decker was placed on injured reserve after just three games last season due to a shoulder injury, and that wasn't even his last injury of the season. He later needed another surgery to fix a hip ailment.
Decker was let go by the New York Jets in the offseason before signing with the Tennessee Titans.
So we have a guy coming off of two separate surgeries, who hasn't played since last September, and is now on the team that ran the fourth-fewest passing plays in the league last season. That certainly explains his floor projection of just 92.39 fantasy points, which would rank him as the WR55, making him no more than a reserve player in most leagues.
But this is also the same player who missed a total of three games over the six seasons prior to last year, and he caught double-digit touchdowns in three of those seasons. Despite his new team throwing a small amount of passes, the Titans' passing attack was more efficient in 2016 than the Jets were in any of Decker's three seasons in New York, which we can see by looking at each team's schedule-adjusted Passing NEP per play.
| Year | Team | Adjusted Passing NEP/Play | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Tennessee Titans | 0.15 | 11th |
| 2016 | New York Jets | -0.03 | 30th |
| 2015 | New York Jets | 0.10 | 15th |
| 2014 | New York Jets | 0.02 | 23rd |
Playing in a better passing attack, Decker has the potential to be a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, per our models, for the fourth time in his career. With him currently being drafted as the 38th wide receiver, a WR1 season would be a huge return on investment for those willing to take a risk on the Titans' new receiver.
