Fantasy Football: 10 Sleeper Running Backs to Target in 2017

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots

Let's face it, we have no idea how this New England Patriots backfield is going to shake out. When Rex Burkhead himself says fantasy owners should "go with their gut" when choosing a Pats running back, that's hardly a ringing endorsement. Between Burkhead, Mike Gillislee, James White, and Dion Lewis, we have a major headache on our hands.

But what we do know is this is a stacked Pats team that should win a lot of games. Thanks to positive game scripts, team wins are heavily correlated with fantasy running back success -- just ask LeGarrette Blount.

Gillislee, who was ridiculously efficient last season, is still the favorite to inherit the lucrative Blount role. The problem is, Gillislee missed much of the preseason with a bum hamstring, and according to head coach Bill Belichick, "has some ground to make up." He is getting increasingly risky at his fifth-round price tag in standard leagues, and sixth-round cost in PPR.

Considering White is known as a passing-down back, and Lewis has a lengthy injury history, that leaves Burkhead as the next most likely candidate to inherit the lion's share of carries. Although Burkhead missed Friday's preseason game for undisclosed reasons, the game prior he worked as the first-team feature back, evidence that the versatile talent is being considered for a leading role. He only had 74 carries in 2016, but according to our metrics, he made the most of them with a 0.15 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per attempt -- the same mark as Lesean McCoy.

But really, this comes down to price, and Burkhead is going in the 11th round of standard leagues. If you select Gillislee and it's a whiff, that puts your team in a major hole, whereas it's no big deal if you strike out on a double-digit investment in Burkhead. And yet, in this offense, Burkhead has the same immense upside. Just ask LeGarrette Blount. —Kenyatta Storin