Fantasy Football: 6 Must-Have Players for 2017
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
As the 2016 NFL season approached, Jimmy Graham was a player people were shying away from, gambling in the 11th round of drafts as the 12th tight end off the board. His transition to the Seattle Seahawks offense had been slow the year before following his blockbuster trade from the New Orleans Saints, and a demoralizing knee injury in Week 11 had many wondering if he would ever regain his previous form, or even play again.
While we perhaps still haven't seen the explosiveness that defined his career in New Orleans, he finished the season with 65 receptions for 923 yards and 6 touchdowns, good enough for fourth place in fantasy scoring at the tight end position. While he wasn't quite the Jimmy Graham who was once in the conversation with Rob Gronkowski for the title of the best tight end in the league, it was an extremely promising start to the second phase of his career.
Now two years removed from his near-catastrophic torn patellar tendon, Graham has dropped 20 pounds and is set to be an even bigger piece of this Seattle offense, which still seems to be learning how to best deploy their tight end.
A red zone monster for Drew Brees, Graham had scored 9 or more touchdowns in four straight seasons for the Saints, and had a catch rate of 58.1 percent in that area of the field during that time. In Seattle, however, he managed to catch just 36 percent of his targets in the red zone over the past two seasons, which ranked dead last among qualifying tight ends. Those numbers have to improve for Graham to regain his mantle as one of the top tight ends of his era.
His target volume is significantly down in Seattle as well, and he had just 95 last season, as opposed to an average of 137 during his four-year stretch as the starter for the Saints. That said, his efficiency and effectiveness on a per target basis has been well above the league average for tight ends, which is still jarring considering how few NFL players actually rebound from a torn patellar tendon injury.
There is no doubt that Graham is a tremendous player when targeted, and of tight ends with at least 80 targets in 2017, Graham ranked third in Reception NEP per target with 0.74. Only Cameron Brate (0.81) and Travis Kelce (0.87) were able to exceed that amount. But will he improve on his red zone efficiency and receive the volume needed to elevate his game back to its previous heights?
Solving that riddle involves believing that Russell Wilson can rebound from his injury-filled 2016, and that Graham, who admitted to rarely practicing during the 2016 season in order to be ready for games, will continue to regain his explosiveness. If both can remain healthy, it would be surprising to not see Graham's numbers continue to rise.
The Seahawks will never throw the ball with the same voracity as the Saints (they ranked just 18th in pass attempts in 2016), but that didn't stop Graham from finishing second in the league in fantasy scoring for tight ends. Yet he is currently being drafted in the fifth round in standard 12-team leagues, making him a target I'm more than happy to nab should I miss out on Rob Gronkowski.
