5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 1

Los Angels Rams' Passing Offense

If y'all thought I was cool going into second grade -- and believe me, those graphic tees were dripping in swag -- you'll be blown away by Jared Goff. He didn't just get some new pencils. He got a new offensive line, some early-round pass catchers, and a new toy called Sammy Watkins. This isn't the team that got roughed up on the playground last year.

It's totally fine if you're skeptical of the Los Angeles Rams' offense out of the gate, given that they have yet to show true success under Goff and it would take a monumental leap forward to have a competent unit in 2017. But if you're ever going to use this team in DFS, this is the week to do so.

The Rams will open their second campaign in Los Angeles by facing the Indianapolis Colts, who have more problems than just the absence of quarterback Andrew Luck.

Yikes.

With Vontae Davis healthy for 14 of 16 games last year, the Colts finished 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They were already a bad unit to begin with. Now, they'll be without undoubtedly the top asset in that secondary.

So, how bad can we expect the Colts to be in Davis' absence? We can look at that 2016 season for a bit of context. On top of missing two games, he also left two others early due to injury, meaning he played at least 50% of the snaps in 12 of 16 games. Here's a look at how the Colts did in the 12 games with Davis compared to the four in which he was either out or limited.

Passing NEP per drop back shows the expected points the opposing quarterbacks added on each drop back, meaning there is a deduction for events such as sacks, interceptions, and incompletions. Success Rate is the percentage of plays on which the team increased their expected points for the drive.

Each drop back in the four games in which Davis was limited was worth four times as many expected points as it would have been with Davis on the field. That's insane, and it means the Colts are going to struggle defensively early on.

But even that may not properly illustrate how bad the Colts were in this stretch. Comparing the Colts to themselves tells us only that they were worse without Davis. It doesn't tell us how bad they were relative to other defenses.

So, instead, let's compare what quarterbacks facing the Colts did when Davis was limited to what Matt Ryan and Tom Brady did for the full season. This should show just how juicy this deficiency truly is.

In a year in which Ryan and Brady flirted with record-setting efficiency, they fell short of what quarterbacks did against the Colts when Davis was out of the lineup. This is not a functional defense without its star cornerback.

The immediate and obvious retort to this would be that it doesn't matter how bad the Colts are with Goff being the quarterback on the opposing sideline. But that assertion overlooks the passers who shredded the Colts in our four-game sample.

Of the 134 passing attempts the Colts allowed in that stretch, 75 of them were by one of Trevor Siemian, Alex Smith, Nick Foles, or Landry Jones. Foles came on in relief of Smith, completed 16 of 22 passes for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns, and then threw for just 187 yards on 33 attempts the following week. Goff may not be great, but with his new surrounding cast, he can probably at least sniff the exploits of the great Nick Foles.

Once you wrap your head around the concept of using Goff in DFS, the next step would be to pick with which player you're going to stack him. That part may be just as difficult as convincing yourself to click the button next to Goff's name.

Watkins is the player who will benefit most from Davis' absence. But Watkins is a deep-ball threat, and Goff threw just 11.71% of his passes at least 16 yards downfield last year, the lowest rate in the league. Can the two actually mesh?

It's very possible they could. Even though Goff didn't go deep often, he had a decent amount of success when he did. He averaged 0.61 Passing NEP per attempt on deep passes, a bit higher than the league-average mark of 0.49. Watkins' old boo, Tyrod Taylor, was below average in that metric last year at 0.46. It's a small sample, but it's too early to say Goff can't push the ball down the field. Watkins is very much in play in this matchup.

But if you're trying to cram in high-priced guys like Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson this week, you may want to check out Cooper Kupp instead. Kupp is an underwhelming athlete and already 24 years old, but the rookie hit the ground running with Goff in the preseason.

Kupp got fed early on before missing the third preseason game due to a groin injury. Kupp is expected to play this week, and for $4,900 on FanDuel, he's a cheap stacking candidate to pair with Goff.

You could just avoid this problem and load up on Todd Gurley shares instead, and that's a fully valid strategy. But with Davis out, we want to attack this secondary, even if that means targeting a Rams passing unit that struggled mightily in 2016.