Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 2

Start the Ravens Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 2, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Baltimore Ravens are eight-point home favorites against the Browns. Sunday's bout is not only interesting because the Ravens are heavy favorites, but also because of the declining game total. The game opened at an already low total of 41 and has quickly dropped to 39 points.

Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. In that same year, if the total dropped two points or more throughout the week, defenses involved scored an average of 8.3 fantasy points per game.

When the Ravens were favored in 2016, they held their opponents to just 15.67 points per game.

Week 2 includes many terrific defensive plays, but they come at a cost. The Baltimore D/ST becomes a bit of a value as they are priced at $4,700 on FanDuel, tied for the seventh-most expensive unit.