5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 4
Cincinnati Bengals' Passing Offense
Even with a slight rebound last week, the Cincinnati Bengals' offense has looked just awful this year. They're numberFire's 32nd-ranked passing offense, trying to play catch-up with such juggernauts as the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Indianapolis Colts. Facing the Cleveland Browns, though, can cure a lot of ills.
Just take their Week 3 game against the aforementioned Colts as an example. That team had been feeling the pain of not having Andrew Luck in a bad way through the first two weeks, making it hard to believe that any matchup could salvage their offense. Then they played the Browns.
| 2017 Colts' Offense | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 2 Games | -21.72 | -0.33 | 36.36% |
| Versus Browns | 8.26 | 0.31 | 40.74% |
The Colts went from losing a third of a point per drop back to gaining a third. T.Y. Hilton had 153 yards through the air after racking up 106 through the first two games combined. This is as good of a get-right spot as any other.
This will also finally be a break for the Bengals from facing top pass rushes. Their first three games have come against the teams ranked 12th, 3rd, and 2nd, respectively in Defensive Sack NEP per drop back, meaning those defenses get to the quarterback with regularity. Cleveland ranks just 19th, making this the cushiest matchup for the ghost of Cincinnati's offensive line to date.
Given all of the draft picks the Browns have been able to use on the defensive side of the ball, we should expect them to improve eventually. We just haven't seen enough reasons to believe that has happened in 2017, allowing us to give Andy Dalton a sniff for $7,100.
If you're using Dalton, you don't need to overthink it; just stack him with A.J. Green. Green is the patron saint of statline sexiness, rocking a 36.05% target market share, 53.85% deep market share, and 33.33% red-zone market share through three games. He's $8,000, which isn't cheap, but it still makes him a screaming bargain with those types of numbers.
If you'd like to get cute and go elsewhere, Brandon LaFell is an option thanks to his 44.44% red-zone market share. Additionally, Tyler Kroft played 98% of the snaps last week with Tyler Eifert out and was second on the team with four targets. He's a minimum-price tight end facing the Browns, putting him on the radar for the week.
