Week 5 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
Over/Under: 39.0
Browns Implied Team Total: 20.25
Jets Implied Team Total: 18.75
In need of value this week? Then check out this matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Jets, in which there isn't a single player priced above $7,000 on FanDuel. While a slate-low 39-point over/under probably doesn't excite you, this is potentially the juiciest and most-affordable game stacks available.
As we made note of in Week 3, the over/under often gets set too low in matchups between two bottom-tier offenses such as this, even though both teams have horrific defenses as well. The Week 3 game of mention was a matchup between the Browns and Indianapolis Colts, who, at the time, were allowing a combined 53.5 points per game. However, the over/under was set at just 40.5 points. The game yielded 59 points in the end, including several terrific value plays.
We have a similar situation this week, as these two teams have given up a combined 50 points per week. The Jets come in as our 26th-ranked defense this season, while no team has been less efficient on defense than Cleveland according to our NEP metrics.
DeShone Kizer, QB, Cleveland Browns
FanDuel Price: $6,900
DeShone Kizer has been an absolute roller coaster ride from a DFS perspective this year, averaging 4.8 FanDuel points on even-numbered weeks and 23.3 in odd. While that volatility is certainly scary, the upside is there. His rushing ability and gunslinger mentality make him a very intriguing punt play when in the right matchup.
While the Jets have been better defensively than most expected, they appeared fairly vulnerable when not facing Jay Cutler and Blake Bortles. Our projections certainly seem to think that Kizer can succeed in this matchup, listing him as the best value at any position on this slate. His week-to-week inconsistency make him a tough sell for cash games, but he is firmly in play in tournaments.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, New York Jets
FanDuel Price: $5,500
While there are a lot of factors trending in the right direction for Austin Seferian-Jenkins lately, we really don't need to complicate this one. The main question needing answered is, "Is this tight end playing the Browns?" If the answer is yes, then they should probably be in your FanDuel lineup.
As we already mentioned, no defense has been worse as a whole than Cleveland thus far. They've been especially bad against tight ends though, a position they've struggled to defend for years. Last week, Tyler Kroft was the flow-chart play against Cleveland, totaling 68 yards and 2 touchdowns.
With Seferian-Jenkins topping 75% of the snaps in both games since returning from suspension and trailing only Robby Anderson ($5,400) in targets over the past two weeks, the opportunity should be there to exploit this defense.
Others to Consider
The previously mentioned Robby Anderson is the strongest tournament dart throw among Jets receivers, coming in with an 82.6% snap rate and tied for the team-lead with Jermaine Kearse ($5,600) for targets. He has the most big-play ability and can take the top off the defense at any time. The most intriguing way to target the Jets offense this week is probably going to be on the ground, though. If Matt Forte sits again, both Bilal Powell ($6,600) and Elijah McGuire ($5,200) will be strong plays after combining for 47.1 FanDuel points last week.
If using a Cleveland running back, Duke Johnson ($6,000) has out-snapped Isaiah Crowell ($6,100) and leads the team in targets per game (7). He is a very strong option on full PPR sites, but don't let FanDuel's half-point PPR scoring scare you off of him either, as he has averaged 18 FanDuel points over the past two weeks.
