Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5
Start the Raiders Defense in a Game With a Low Over/Under
This game looked like a premiere matchup prior to the start of the season. Now we will be treated to E.J. Manuel versus Super Bowl-winning Joe Flacco, who has been historically bad this season.
The total in this game between the low-flying Baltimore Ravens and the Oakland Raiders is only 39 points, tied for the lowest on the weekend slate. Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game.
The total in this game opened at 40 points before dwindling down to 39. Usually a move of one point is far from noteworthy, but for the total to drop from an already-low 40 points to 39 is worth noting.
Games involving the Ravens or the Raiders are going under like RadioShacks. Those games have gone under the total 6 out of 8 times this season.
The Baltimore D/ST makes for a safe play against E.J. Manuel but they are priced at $4,500, which ranks 10th among defenses. The Oakland D/ST is just $200 cheaper, they are favored, and they are playing at home.
It's rare that you can get a home favorite with a total under 40 at this low of a price. The Oakland D/ST is ranked 20th on FanDuel and is worth targeting in all formats.
