New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under: 47.5

Saints Implied Total: 26.75

Packers Implied Total: 20.75

Normally, a New Orleans Saints/Green Bay Packers showdown wouldn't warrant much DFS discussion. With Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers at the helm, every game has shootout potential and every player is a plug-and-play option. Things are different this time around, and a little more caution is in order.

With Rodgers likely out for the year after sustaining a broken collarbone in Week 6, this game's outlook has shifted considerably. Brett Hundley will make his first career start in a contest that features the 3rd-highest over/under of week and suddenly, the Saints are 6-point favorites on the road. That's probably not something you've heard in a long time.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $6,100

It's been fun to watch Alvin Kamara develop as an NFL running back. With each week, his confidence appears to grow, and his receiving chops were never in question. Last week against the Detroit Lions, Kamara received a career-high 10 carries, which he turned into 75 rushing yards. The rookie also secured all 4 of his targets for 12 yards and forced 3 missed tackles. It wasn't a blow-up game by any means, but it showed how far he's come in a short period of time.

There's little question that he remains firmly behind Mark Ingram ($7,100) in the running back pecking order, but he's secured a sizable role of his own going forward. The fact that he's been extremely efficient is mere icing on the cake. In fact, Kamara leads all running backs who have received more than 10 carries on the season with a 0.45 NEP per rush total.

Clearly, he doesn't need 20 touches per game to make an impact. In Week 7, he draws a matchup that works to his advantage. The Packers are better against the pass (11th in the NFL) than the run (24th in the league), and the Saints showed last week they're not afraid to lean on their tailbacks. The Packers have surrendered a generous 22.6 FanDuel points per game to opposing runners and Kamara figures to be a reasonably inexpensive beneficiary.

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $6,900

Lost in the aftermath of the Rodgers injury is what's happening with the Packers' receiving corps. Quietly, Davante Adams is challenging Jordy Nelson for the role of number one wideout.

In spite of missing a portion of the Chicago Bears game with a scary concussion, Adams has snared 28 of 48 targets for 339 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Nelson (who missed most of the Falcons game) has nabbed 25 of 38 targets for 290 yards and 6 scores. Nelson, of course, has long been Rodgers' favorite target, but Adams was clearly gaining ground on him.

When Rodgers left with his injury, it was Adams who stepped up, pacing the team with 10 targets, 5 catches, 54 yards, and a touchdown. Even more impressive: he accomplished this with Xavier Rhodes following him for much of the day.

The Vikings assigning their number one corner to Adams was a considerable show of respect and illustrates what opposing defenses think of him. Of course, Nelson remained heavily involved and will continue to do so, but it's apparent that this is more of a 1A and 1B situation than it was a year ago.

As far as the matchup is concerned, the Saints' run defense has improved considerably, but they still rank 28th against the pass. That the Lions climbed back into last week's game at all is proof positive of that. Hundley isn't going to pick them apart the way Rodgers would have, but coupling a plus matchup with the fact the Packers are a 6-point underdog makes in clear that he's going to have to throw early and often to keep pace with Brees. Adams could post the best stat line of all Packers receivers once again.

Others to Consider

If you're willing to pay big, Brees ($8,300) could be a solid investment, but spending QB4 money on the veteran in a road contest where the script favors the running game is a risky proposition. Tempered expectations are in order. Last weekend, Michael Thomas ($7,700) caught 3 of 6 targets for only 11 yards in game that saw his team score 52 points. It was a bizarre development and he's certain to bounce back this week. Proceed with confidence, as the sophomore had topped 85 yards receiving in his previous three games.

Jordy Nelson ($7,400) is always in play, but his greatest assets are his chemistry with Rodgers and his ability to find the end zone. Rodgers is out for the foreseeable future and as such, Nelson's touchdown opportunities will certainly diminish. While he's still a dynamic player, it's hard to ignore the fact that he hasn't cleared 80 receiving yards this season, and his 11.6 yards per reception represent his lowest average since his rookie year. Those figures aren't likely to improve with his All-Pro quarterback on the shelf.

Aaron Jones ($6,700) and Ty Montgomery ($6,500) split backfield duties last week, but neither man was able to accomplish much against the Minnesota Vikings stingy defense. The match-up with the 11th-ranked Saints run defense is better, but not inviting by any stretch of the imagination. The Saints are allowing an average of 100.8 rushing yards per game but that number is inflated by a 127-yard performance from Dalvin Cook in Week 1. No other running back has topped 70 yards on the ground against this defense. Jones has looked like the superior runner to this point, but this might be a slightly better draw for Montgomery, the team's preferred pass-catching back, as the Saints are allowing an average of 7.4 receptions per contest to opposing tailbacks. This committee is a risky proposition in Week 7.