Week 6 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Adrian Peterson's Rebirth
Rushing Market Shares
1. Adrian Peterson Surges to Relevancy
Welp. The "Adrian Peterson is Chris Johnson" comps didn't age well.
In his Arizona Cardinals debut, Peterson handled 26 of the 29 running-back carries and played 78.7% of the team's snaps. That's monster usage no matter how old you are.
The question then becomes whether or not this performance was legit, and we have to be hesitant not to say it was a fluke just because we thought AP was washed before the game. There are points to be made on both sides.
We'll start with the pros here for Peterson. The first is that usage, which was huge. The second would have to be his effectiveness. Of Peterson's 26 runs, half of them increased the team's expected points for the drive, per numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, also known as his Success Rate. All other Cardinals running backs have a combined Success Rate of 18.48% this year, so this was clearly a deviation from the norm.
And this newfound efficiency makes sense beyond Peterson's arrival. This was the first game for left tackle D.J. Humphries since Week 1 due to injury, and left guard Alex Boone returned after two weeks on the sidelines. This is the healthiest their offensive line has been since the start of the year, so the success shouldn't be a major shock.
That's the good. The bad is that things worked to absolute perfection in the factors over which Peterson has less control.
Namely, we're talking game script here. Had the Cardinals fallen behind, it seems likely they would have turned to Andre Ellington as the running back. Peterson did play 15 passing snaps, according to Pro Football Focus, compared to 12 for Ellington, but Peterson failed to record a target. Peterson has never seen heavy usage as a receiver, meaning a negative script would likely favor Ellington.
Additionally, Peterson had fresh legs, was coming off of a bye, and was playing at home. Those are all factors that would lead to increased usage. In the future, not all of those will always be at his disposal, and the team's not guaranteed to lead, 21-0, early in the second quarter. All of the cards just happened to fall into place for this game.
So, what does this mean going forward? Given the team's effectiveness with Humphries and Boone back, it means we'll be able to trust Peterson in certain scenarios. However, that's likely limited to when the team is favored and at home. If they fall behind early, you could be staring down a goose egg in your lineups.
Week 7 will be a good test of that. They're on the road as 3.5-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams. If the team falls behind and keeps Peterson in the game, we'll be forced to reevaluate again. But for now, he's a guy we can definitely trust in expected positive game scripts and of whom we should be wary in all other scenarios.
2. Chris Thompson Gets an Expanded Role
All year, Washington coaches have said that Chris Thompson's role would remain limited. Then they pulled the "lol, jk" card on Sunday.
With Rob Kelley out due to an ankle injury, Thompson carried the ball 16 times, doubling his previous high for the season. It was only his second time eclipsing 10 carries in his career and his first time with more than 12. So much for that limited role.
Thompson didn't do much with those carries, but he added in 5 targets and 105 yards through the air to boost his fantasy output. That usage is important regardless of the production.
First, it means that Samaje Perine likely has no value going forward despite his receiving touchdown Sunday. If he gets just 9 of 27 running-back carries when Kelley is out, he's not an asset we can consider.
Second, it means that Kelley's job could be in jeopardy if he struggles with his efficiency upon returning. Kelley's Success Rate (27.59%) is a hair lower than Thompson's (30.56%), and Thompson offers much more versatility out of the backfield. Kelley's return would likely cut into Thompson's workload, but that doesn't mean he'll automatically have fantasy relevance.
Finally, this does increase the appeal in Thompson. His 60.8% snap rate was a new high for the season, topping his 52.0% mark before their bye week. He's lethal in the passing game, and he could get more volume as a runner. That's enough to say his stock is trending up even with Kelley's return likely being imminent.
3. Hasta La Vista, C.J. Anderson
Loosely, "Hasta la vista" means "Until I see you." Until I see C.J. Anderson pop again, our relationship is terminado.
Anderson accounted for 9 of the Denver Broncos' 15 carries Sunday night, his second time being held under 10 this year. He added zero targets after receiving at least two in every game prior to that, and Devontae Booker likely played a big role there.
In Booker's first significant action of the year, he finished with one carry and six targets. He played 28.4% of the snaps, besting Jamaal Charles at 24.7% and trimming Anderson's snap rate to 46.9%. Anderson's lowest mark prior to that was 68.8%. This is a huge ding to Anderson's fantasy value.
If this usage continues, it means Booker will likely get a good chunk of work in negative game script. Charles is still there to snag the occasional carry, as well. This isn't a full-blown committee, but Anderson is no longer the clear-cut lead back.
Right now, this is how we should perceive Anderson: he's the top option in a mid-level offense with some game-flow concerns. That can be viable for fantasy. But until his DFS pricing reflects his limitations (he's $7,100 on FanDuel for Week 7), we'd be wise to let him simmer on the sidelines.
