Week 8 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Will Fuller Trends Up

Rushing Market Shares

1. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara Provide Dual-Viability

It's safe to say that things are going swimmingly for the New Orleans Saints' running backs since the team traded Adrian Peterson during their bye week.

And it's not just backward-looking fantasy production for Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara; they're getting enough usage to keep this gravy train flowing in the future.

Here's a look at the team's weekly opportunity (touches plus targets) distribution in the three games since Peterson's departure.

Clearly, Ingram is the top guy here, but Kamara's still getting plenty of chances. And it's possible he could continue to see that workload expand.

Last year, Ingram lost work to Tim Hightower in the middle part of the season due to issues with fumbles. He fumbled twice in the fourth quarter on Sunday, both of which were recovered by the Chicago Bears. Here's the opportunity distribution between the two sides before and after Ingram's first fumble with 7:41 left in the game.

The team turned to Kamara to grind clock in a one-score game, and Ingram lost another fumble in his two opportunities. This is something that could play a big role going forward.

That's not to say Ingram will suddenly go away or Kamara will become a 20-touch horse. Kamara had just 210 rush attempts in two years with the Tennessee Volunteers, so that's not in his range of outcomes. But it could give Kamara at least a larger piece of the pie.

It's not time to completely jump ship on Ingram just yet because they don't have another high-volume back in the stable. But we've seen this script before, and the team is not generally kind to those who cough up the football. Ingram is $7,900 on FanDuel in Week 9 while Kamara is $6,600. It might not be bad to ride with Kamara at that price to see if the team punishes Ingram for his turnovers.

2. Marlon Mack's Role Keeps Expanding

The Indianapolis Colts aren't a good team, and with Andrew Luck potentially out for the year, that doesn't seem likely to change. We want to tie our running backs to teams much better than this. But it is at least noteworthy that Marlon Mack's usage continues to expand.

In a game where the Colts held a lead halfway through the fourth quarter, Mack outsnapped Frank Gore, 39-36, giving Mack 52.7% of the team's snaps. That was his first time playing more than half the snaps this year and just his second time above 40%, so his workload is clearly on the rise.

That's manifesting itself in the carry column, too. Gore outcarried Mack, 16-11, but Mack added in five targets. This is after Mack had six targets last week, too, so it certainly seems as if the Colts are trying to get their fourth-round rookie extra run.

The Colts are 2-6 and 2.5 games out of first place in the AFC South with their bye coming in Week 11. This very likely is not a playoff team. Why not give Mack additional opportunities to see what you've got for the future?

Anecdotally, this makes sense, and it's something we have to continually monitor. But how do we handle Mack for fantasy in the short term?

We have to keep in mind that he's still -- as of right now -- a committee back in a bad offense. His passing-game involvement does increase his appeal, but there are still serious limits on his ceiling. That means the upside in chasing him before his volume increases are minimal.

However, if the team were to give him more touches, that could change in a hurry. If Mack can carve out somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 carries and 5 targets per game, we can consider using him as long as the cost stays low. So for right now, he's more a player to monitor than to use in DFS, but we'll have to keep a close watch on his usage the next few weeks.

3. Jay Ajayi Shakes Up the Eagles

The NFL trade deadline be lit this year. Giddy up, y'all.

And a good morning to you, as well.

This isn't a huge surprise after head coach Adam Gase publicly blasted Ajayi after last week's game, but the destination certainly is. The Philadelphia Eagles just lost baller left tackle Jason Peters and would seemingly have a bigger need there than at running back. But, alas, we've got ourselves a whole new ballgame for Ajayi.

From a system perspective, this is a huge upgrade for Ajayi. The Eagles currently sit 14th in schedule-adjusted rushing efficiency, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. The Miami Dolphins are dead last. Gase seems to think Ajayi's part of the issue in that low ranking, but offensive line play will also clearly play a part.

On top of that, the Eagles are a much stabler team at quarterback with Carson Wentz sitting fourth in expected points added on a per-drop back basis among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. Efficient passers are able to generate more touchdown drives, and Ajayi hasn't found the end zone yet this year.

So, what does it mean for Ajayi's fantasy outlook? Everything, basically.

Even without Peters, this situation should be better for Ajayi than what he had in Miami. Tying him to an infinitely better quarterback will give him more touchdown stability, increasing the upside there. He's also more likely to play on a team with leads, allowing them to feed him the ball late in games.

This doesn't mean Ajayi is suddenly the Eagles' new every-down horse, though. They've still got LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement to mix in on early downs and keep Ajayi's knees healthy, and Wendell Smallwood should continue to get passing-down work, something that has never been a forte for Ajayi. If the team falls behind, Ajayi could get shuffled out of the mix.

On top of that, this is still a mid-season change for Ajayi as he transitions to a new system. So while this is a long-term gain for his ceiling, his short-term outlook is decidedly muddy.

You should be buying Ajayi because he's on a much better team now than he was Monday night. But when you do so, buy with caution. He's not going to see the same target floor he had with the Dolphins, and his season-long injury ills still exist. While it's a boon for Ajayi's fantasy stock, he's not out of the woods just yet.