5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs' Rushing Offense

Once again, you don't gotta look far to pivot. Instead of rostering Elliott, why not peep the opposing guy due for some sweet, sweet regression?

That's what we have going for Kareem Hunt, who hasn't found the end zone since Week 3. This is a good spot for him to correct that.

The Cowboys' defense has been rough in general this year, sitting 29th overall. That means you can absolutely roll out Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, or Tyreek Hill if they better fit what you need. But with the Cowboys sitting 31st against the rush, Hunt could go bonkers.

The immediate rebuttal to any this could easily be that the metrics don't fully account for the health of linebacker Sean Lee, and that's an accurate assertion. But these struggles have been apparent even when Lee has been on the field.

If you just look at the straight splits, you'll see that two of the biggest games against the Cowboys came within the two-game stretch where Lee was out. But that also happened to be the two best rushing offenses the Cowboys faced this year.

In the five games the Cowboys have played with Lee, they have faced the rushing offenses ranked 18th, 23rd, 25th, 29th, and 31st, based on numberFire's metrics. In the two games without Lee, they faced the 3rd- and 14th-ranked rushing offenses. You would expect those teams to do better, and they did. Meanwhile, the Chiefs enter this game as the fourth-ranked team on the ground, meaning this will be a true test of the difference Lee makes. Yes, they should be better with him out there, but it may not matter enough to negate how good Hunt has been.

That said, it has been pretty tough sledding for Hunt recently. As mentioned, he hasn't scored since Week 3, and he has been held to fewer than 50 rushing yards in two of his past three games. That's after hitting 80-plus in each of his first five. It's certainly not a skid we should ignore.

But it's not a coincidence that those middle games were played without a full compliment of healthy offensive linemen. The team lost center Mitch Morse in Week 2, and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif went down early in Week 4. Morse made his return on Monday against the Denver Broncos, and it looks like Duvernay-Tardif is right in his tracks.

With Duvernay-Tardif practicing in full on Wednesday, he seems likely to make his return on Sunday. That's a big deal for Hunt.

Below are Hunt's splits in games in which Duvernay-Tardif has played at least 50% of the snaps versus the ones in which he did not. Rushing NEP per carry is the expected points added on a per-carry basis, and Success Rate is the percentage of those runs that increased the team's expected points for the drive.

Hot diggity dog.

Clearly, these aren't robust samples, and you don't expect Hunt to magically spring up to 8.53 yards per carry this weekend. But Duvernay-Tardif's return can't be a bad thing.

Even with the struggles, Hunt's usage has been great. He has played at least 70% of the snaps in four consecutive games, and he has 39.75% of the team's opportunities over the past three games. He's getting carries, he's getting targets, and he's getting big men back up front. What's not to love?

Given all of the value options at the position -- and with people flocking to Elliott when they want to pay up -- Hunt doesn't figure to carry restrictive ownership this week. His game logs should further put a lid on that. But with a plus matchup and improving health up front, this is a good week to pay up for Hunt in DFS.