Week 10 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Clarity on the Cowboys

Rushing Market Shares

1. Bilal Powell Collapses Without Matt Forte

Trusting a potential committee back in a mediocre to bad offense is a risky proposition. I just wish I had realized this before 1 p.m. EST on Sunday.

In his lone healthy game prior to Week 10 without Matt Forte, Bilal Powell handled 40.6% of the New York Jets' carries plus targets while playing 65.7% of the snaps. Sunday, he got out-snapped, out-targeted, and out-touched by Elijah McGuire. Not only that, but Powell managed to fumble on his lone reception of the day. It was as big of a nightmare as you could imagine.

The most shocking aspect of all was the seven targets that went to McGuire compared to just two for Powell. Prior to that game, McGuire had maxed out at three targets, and that came in a game where Forte was out and Powell left early due to injury. There was nothing conventional about this usage.

Because Forte could be out beyond the team's Week 11 bye, we may have to deal with this situation again in the future. But after seeing Powell's floor on Sunday, we know that a complete split is within his range of outcomes. When that comes in a better offense, we can swallow that pill and use him in DFS. But in one led by Josh McCown, it's likely best to stay away, even if it means missing out on a bounceback performance.

2. The Cowboys' Backfield Becomes More Clear

Week 10 was a nightmare for the Dallas Cowboys. In their first game without Ezekiel Elliott, they fell behind early and scored a whopping seven points. They likely want to burn that game tape and never go back. But we did get some solid answers about the usage in the backfield.

On the ground, Alfred Morris was the go-to guy with 11 of 15 running-back carries. It was Rod Smith who got the passing-game work, netting six targets to go with his three carries. Smith played on 34 of 45 passing snaps, according to Pro Football Focus, while Morris played on 12 of 18 rushing snaps. It's definitely a tandem backfield, but it seems like we know what we're getting. There's value in that.

Based on what we saw in Week 10, it seems like we should expect plenty of Morris when the team is ahead and more Smith when they're forced to throw. Honestly, this may be the best-case scenario. It's just hard to trust the offense as a whole after what happened Sunday.

Until left tackle Tyron Smith returns, it's hard to see the Cowboys holding too many commanding leads. Dak Prescott took eight sacks Sunday, nearly doubling his total for the season, and sacks kill the viability of a ground game. That means we should expect more of Rod Smith while Tyron Smith is ailing.

However, if the Cowboys can get Tyron Smith back, then Morris could easily stumble into a big game. They'd have their big stud back up front, and it would increase their odds of controlling the game flow. So keep tabs on Tyron Smith's availability, and when he's back in the mix, it might be time to plug in Morris at what should be low ownership.

3. Austin Ekeler Puts a Dent in Melvin Gordon

In a vacuum, it'd be easy to write off Austin Ekeler's two-touchdown day Sunday, saying it was an aberration for a guy who played just 33.3% of the snaps. And while it's true that we shouldn't chase Ekeler based on this big day, we can't ignore what effect his production could have on Melvin Gordon.

On just 23 snaps, Ekeler wound up getting 10 carries and 5 targets in Week 10. Gordon's usage was still respectable with 16 carries and 8 targets, roughly in line with his full-season numbers. But Gordon also turned those 24 opportunities into just 42 yards from scrimmage, which is not exactly ideal efficiency.

The Chargers seemed to recognize this throughout the game. Here's the opportunity breakdown for the two players by half. In the first two quarters, it was almost all Gordon. But in second half and overtime, things skewed more toward Ekeler.

Ekeler was being efficient in his touches, and the Los Angeles Chargers rewarded him. That's probably the right move on their part, but it does cast a shadow on Gordon's fantasy outlook.

Gordon has struggled with his efficiency all season, getting by thanks to some immense volume. If more of that volume starts to go Ekeler's way, it could have a pretty drastic negative effect on Gordon. That's why Ekeler's production is so important.

Still, this doesn't mean we need to jump ship just yet. Gordon still had a 36.4% market share in the offense on Sunday, and the Chargers will play just their second home game since October 1st in Week 11. Their only other home game in that span was against the pre-collapse Denver Broncos. On top of that, they'll be facing a Buffalo Bills team that has been bleeding rushing yards the past two weeks. This is a tremendous rebound spot for Gordon, who is $7,800 on FanDuel. We'll want to get some tournament shares of him in case he's able to turn things around, but we also want to keep tabs on Ekeler going forward in case he continues to earn more opportunities.

4. Leonard Fournette Gets the Kareem Hunt Treatment

Each of the past two weeks, we've been given a sobering reminder: it's hard to trust running backs who aren't guaranteed passing-down work. It was Kareem Hunt in Week 9. This time, it was Leonard Fournette's turn to send your lineups into the gutter.

From a usage perspective, things weren't that bad for Fournette. He finished with 17 of 21 running-back carries (excluding Corey Grant's fake-punt touchdown) to go with four targets. That could certainly be a lot worse. He just didn't do much with it.

On top of that, Fournette's snap rate presented cause for concern. He played just 53.6% of the snaps, which isn't a mark you expect when you're paying upwards of $8,000 for a guy.

But that wasn't even an outlier for Fournette. In fact, he has exceeded a 60% snap rate just twice this year, and one of those was a 60.9% mark back in Week 1. Although he's got heavy odds of touching the ball when he's on the field, that playing time isn't always a given.

Fournette -- like Hunt -- does get some work in the passing game. But it's not always enough to prevent him from the ills of game flow. Whenever the Jacksonville Jaguars are forced to throw, you're running the risk that Fournette may slip out of the gameplan. That makes him a hard guy to trust when he's as expensive as he always is.

We're going to get tested on our feelings toward Fournette in Week 11. The Jaguars are on the road to face the Cleveland Browns, who have had one of the best run defenses in the league this entire season, but it's a game you'd expect the Jags to win. Are you willing to trust Fournette in this type of spot? With his price all the way up at $9,300, you had better be able to answer that question with a firm "yes," or else he could wind up sinking lineups for a second consecutive week.

5. Rex Burkhead Leapfrogs James White

For the past month or so, we've had the New England Patriots' backfield figured out: Dion Lewis gets the rushes, James White gets the targets, and Mike Gillislee gets the random scraps when the game is already in hand.

Then Rex Burkhead put all of our knowledge in a wood chipper Sunday night.

Burkhead handled 10 of 28 running-back carries while getting three targets in the passing game. Lewis still out-carried him with 14 totes, but he didn't net a single target. White had the same number of targets as Burkhead, but he had just two carries. From a balance perspective, Burkhead was the only guy dipping his toes into both waters.

This dual-viability showed up biggest in Burkhead's snap count.

In a game script that should have been ideal for Lewis, Burkhead was the one who played more than half of the snaps. White's snap rate was just 15.7%, easily his lowest of the year.

What does this mean going forward? It means that Burkhead is probably the go-to guy in this backfield. If he's going to get work as both a rusher and a receiver, he's going to be viable even if the Patriots snag a big lead. That means we can at least consider him no matter what the projected game script may be.

It also means we likely need to back off on both Lewis and White. They would need the game script to be pristine (positive for Lewis and negative/neutral for White), and it's hard to guarantee things work to an extreme on either end of the spectrum. If you're targeting a running back on this team, it pretty much needs to be Burkhead, and we should start doing exactly that starting this week.