Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 13
Avoid Philip Rivers as a Heavy Favorite
The recharged Los Angeles Chargers are 13.5-point favorites versus the Cleveland Browns. This spread makes the Chargers the largest favorites of the weekend and one of the biggest favorites of the season. The spread was also recently 14 points, and in his career, Philip Rivers has only been favored by 14 or more points in 4 games. In those games, the Chargers failed to cover the spread.
Philip Rivers is 0-4 against the spread as a favorite of 14 or more points in his career. The #Chargers are 14-point favorites against the #Browns pic.twitter.com/IGMMvuc8Bo
— Matt Blair (@grizzlyblair) November 29, 2017
This dates back to the Ladainian Tomlinson days for some of those results, but Rivers has failed to blow any of these teams out of the water. After winning on national television with ease last week, the Chargers' line looks inflated. It's also inflated because the Browns are an NFL-worst 2-9 against the spread.
It's tough to predict a quarterback's performance in games where they are favored so heavily. Fans envision a complete blowout but it doesn't always go that way. In fact, when favored by 10 or more points in his career, Rivers has performed below his career averages.
Another reason to be wary of Rivers is his rising price on FanDuel. He is priced at $8,000, the highest he has been priced since Week 1, ranking fifth among this weekend's quarterbacks. He's only worth a play in tournaments.
