5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15
Minnesota Vikings' Rushing Offense
With NFL DFS, it's always a little fun to indulge and take a stroll down narrative street. If a player's facing his former team, we can all get behind a little revenge narrative.
But when it's the coach? Oh, baby. The insides be tingly.
That's what we get with Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer this week as he goes up against his former team in the Cincinnati Bengals. And Zimmer and the Vikings are catching this defense at the right time.
Earlier in the year, the Bengals had a pretty stout unit, holding their opponents to 16.6 points per game prior to their Week 6 bye. They had some injuries in the final game before that off week, though, and the brown stuff has hit the fan in a big way since.
This isn't just to one dimension of the defense, either. They've been spewing yardage to attacks through the air and on the ground alike.
Here's a breakdown of how teams have done against the Bengals both before and after that bye. Shield your eyes if you're squeamish.
| Cincinnati's Defense | Before Bye | After Bye |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Success Rate Against | 37.22% | 47.74% |
| Rushing Success Rate Against | 38.98% | 45.34% |
For context, the league-average Success Rate is 45.62% for passing and 37.90% for rushing. This is no longer a good defense.
You could blame injuries for this, but that's not a factor that figures to be in their favor this week, either.
Joe Mixon, Dre Kirkpatrick and Vontaze Burfict all still in concussion protocol.
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) December 13, 2017
Getting either Vontaze Burfict or Dre Kirkpatrick back by Sunday would be a plus, but they've also lost corner Adam Jones for the season with a groin injury. This is a banged-up unit, and it's definitely showing.
The dilemma we have with the Vikings is in which way we want to attack the Bengals. They've got desirable assets at each position, making it a good problem to have.
That said, the Bengals' defense has deviated further from the mean against running backs than they have with passing games. Additionally, the Vikings are favored by 11, which hints at a rush-heavy script. While it shouldn't force us to ignore Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, it does allow us to get back in on Latavius Murray for $6,200.
Murray put up a major dud his last time out, finishing with just 3.0 points on FanDuel. Even at his reduced price, that's a killer for your lineups.
Still, that doesn't matter much when assessing Murray for this game. The Vikings trailed throughout most of that one, a script that sets up better for Jerick McKinnon. With the Vikings being big home favorites, they should be looking back in Murray's direction.
During the Vikings' eight-game win streak from Week 5 through Week 13, Murray had at least 12 carries in each game, and he had fewer than 15 once. With the Bengals' struggles, that could be enough to push him over the top at this salary.
We also know that Murray will be involved when the Vikings are near the goal line. He has 12 carries inside the 10-yard line over the past nine games with eight of those being inside the five. The Vikings have the third-highest implied team total on the main slate, meaning those chances will be there. It's just a question of whether Murray is the one who gets those opportunities.
The biggest concern for the Vikings here is health up front. Left tackle Riley Reiff was in a walking boot after the last game, and that's in addition to previous injuries suffered by right tackle Mike Remmers and center Pat Elflein. Missing Reiff would be a huge red flag for investing here.
That said, things don't look as bad now as they did on Sunday. Zimmer expressed optimism that all three could be able to play this week. If that winds up being the case, it would be the first time they've had all starters healthy since all the way back in Week 5. You'll want to keep tabs on them throughout the week, but for now, it seems like we may have avoided this potential calamity.
For cash games, if you're spending in this price range, you're going to want to snag Kenyan Drake for $6,500. He's the guy with the bigger piece of the respective pie, and his matchup is also pretty spicy against the Bills. But with the Miami Dolphins' implied team total likely coming in well below that of the Vikings, there's enough reason here to throw out some Murray lineups in tournaments.
