Week 15 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Greg Olsen Lives Again
Receiving Market Shares
1. JuJu Smith-Schuster Could Step Into a Massive Role
Antonio Brown has 30.7% of the Steelers' targets this year. Taking that out of an offense is going to dramatically alter the way we view it, meaning Week 16 is going to be an interesting one.
After a variety of tests, #Steelers WR Antonio Brown has a partially torn calf muscle, source said. The hope is that he’s OK for the postseason. His regular season is over. No surgery needed.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 18, 2017
The Steelers can still get a first-round bye in the playoffs, and they've technically still got a shot at homefield advantage. There's something to play for here. JuJu Smith-Schuster could be the big beneficiary.
After Brown's injury on Sunday, the team had 16 targeted throws. Smith-Schuster led the team with four of those targets while Le'Veon Bell, Jesse James, and Martavis Bryant each had three. That's a 25.0% market share for Smith-Schuster, which isn't bad, even in a small sample.
The reason we can have more faith in Smith-Schuster than Bryant is that we've seen him handle a heavy target load already this year. Smith-Schuster had 10 targets back in Week 8 followed by 7 and 8, respectively, in the following two games. Bryant has exceeded six targets just once in the past eight games, and he has topped the 60-yard barrier only once the entire year. While both get a boost, it seems as if Smith-Schuster is our top target at wide receiver.
Truthfully, though, the guy we should be leaning on most is still Bell. In addition to the three targets after Brown's injury, Bell had 19 carries, giving him 52.4% of the team's total opportunities. The game is on the road against the Houston Texans, an opponent the Steelers should be able to beat even without Brown. So while Smith-Schuster's a fine play, Bell is still easily the best option for DFS.
2. Greg Olsen Emerges From the Crypt
Entering Week 15, Greg Olsen had turned 11 targets into 4 receptions for 38 yards and no touchdowns the entire season.
In just one game, he more than doubled that target total, quadrupled the yardage mark, and found the end zone for the first time. It appears our old friend is back.
It's possible you could have seen this coming for Olsen with his snap rate at 92.2% in Week 14. But he tallied just one target there, casting doubt on the health of his foot. But he had 12 of 28 targeted throws on Sunday against a Green Bay Packers team that had previously held tight ends in check. Three of those targets for Olsen were at least 16 yards downfield, meaning the high yardage total wasn't a fluke.
Now that we know a game like this is in his range of outcomes, we can go back to feeling pretty solid about Olsen in good matchups. That's what he'll see in Week 16 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so he's worth his price tag at $6,600.
With Olsen re-emerging, we have to take a second look at Devin Funchess. He had just four targets on Sunday, his lowest mark since Week 1. Considering that Funchess was dealing with a shoulder injury coming into the week and appeared to aggrevate it during the game, it's fair to question whether his health is affecting his productivity. Now that Olsen's there to suck away some targets, we should be wary of Funchess, even in cushy spots like the one he'll have against the Bucs.
3. Mike Wallace Is Developing a Floor
The Ravens' pass catchers are trending in the opposite direction of their running backs. While ambiguity abounds in the backfield, Mike Wallace is suddenly developing a floor. It comes at a great time with a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts on deck.
Wallace finished Week 15 with 10 targets, his second time hitting double digits in the past four games. In five games since their Week 9 bye, Wallace has 22.2% of the team's targets, 40.6% of the deep targets, 18.8% of the red-zone targets. While those aren't stud numbers, you don't need him to be a stud at $5,900. He could wind up being a value in slates that include Saturday's games.
The targets could become even a bit more steady if Jeremy Maclin were to miss time. Maclin is likely to miss Week 16 after suffering a knee injury on Sunday. Maclin had 19 targets in the two games leading into Week 15, meaning his absence would open up plenty of volume. It may not feel comfortable to use a wide receiver attached to Joe Flacco, but Wallace's volume will force us to take a look, especially if Maclin is, indeed, on the shelf.
4. The Lions' Targets Are Spread Thin
The Detroit Lions are still fully in the playoff hunt, and Matthew Stafford has looked healthy the past two weeks. That should make us want to give their passing game a sniff. But with the way the targets have been distributed recently, it's really hard to get super enthused about anybody involved.
We've got six games of data since Kenny Golladay returned in Week 10. Here are the team's targets in those six games with a "deep" target being at least 16 yards downfield.
| Past 6 Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 21.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% |
| Eric Ebron | 18.1% | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Marvin Jones | 17.6% | 45.2% | 14.3% |
| Kenny Golladay | 11.1% | 32.3% | 4.8% |
On one hand, this shows that the team does a good job of utilizing each individual's strengths rather than shoe-horning them into a role that doesn't fit them. On the other, it makes each of them unusable for fantasy football. How selfish of them to think of the team over our needs.
If this were the Patriots, we'd be able to accept these market shares because each target would carry so much juice. While Stafford certainly isn't bad, he's not Tom Brady. This presents us with a problem.
You can absolutely justify using Marvin Jones or Golden Tate in a stack with Stafford because of the team's ability to generate touchdowns. But as standalone plays, they leave plenty to be desired and can never truly be core plays for multi-entry tournament rosters. None of them are in play for cash, either.
The one person who could still tempt you is Eric Ebron. The standards for market shares are lower at tight end, meaning Ebron's 19.8% market share the past three games ranks eighth in the league. The touchdowns will still be hard to predict, but he's now back on the radar if you need to spend down at the position.
5. Dede Westbrook Takes a Step Backward
Everything should have been perfect for Dede Westbrook in Week 15. The team scored 45 points with Blake Bortles tossing 3 touchdowns. Westbrook's main competition for targets, Marqise Lee, went down early due to injury. Westbrook's usage had been solid entering the game.
He finished with 2 receptions for 21 yards. Awesome.
Instead, it was Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens who went off, combining for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns. Even if you were able to pinpoint Bortles as a solid play in DFS, the odds that you paired him with the correct pass catcher are slim. It's a massive bummer.
Unfortunately, we can't just write off Westbrook until 2018. The Jacksonville Jaguars have the San Francisco 49ers next on the docket, a team that generally increases play volume for the opposing offense and struggles to stop the pass. We are likely going to want to target a receiver here again.
Assuming Lee misses (which seems to be the most likely scenario), we could just go with Cole and chase Sunday's big game. But we also shouldn't completely ignore Westbrook.
Despite the disappointing target load, Westbrook still played 57 of 72 snaps, his second-highest snap rate of the year. He played one less snap than Bortles -- who rested for part of the fourth quarter -- and more than any of the other receivers. He didn't just disappear from the gameplan.
People won't want to go back to Lee after his disappointing output in Week 15, especially after he was on 22.9% of all rosters in the FanDuel Sunday Million. But if Lee misses, there will be opportunity up for grabs, meaning we should be willing to go back to Westbrook in a favorable matchup.
