2017 NFL Power Rankings: Week 16
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
It’s time for another game of “Will the Browns Go Winless?!”
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Defense | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Indianapolis Colts | -11.89 | 3-11 | 0.0% | 25 | 32 | 0 |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | -9.34 | 4-10 | 0.0% | 23 | 31 | 0 |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | -8.66 | 0-14 | 0.0% | 28 | 26 | 0 |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | -7.72 | 6-8 | 3.4% | 31 | 16 | -1 |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | -6.88 | 5-9 | 0.0% | 26 | 21 | -2 |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | -5.82 | 8-6 | 39.3% | 30 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 | New York Giants | -5.52 | 2-12 | 0.0% | 24 | 19 | +3 |
| 25 | Tennessee Titans | -4.63 | 8-6 | 56.0% | 20 | 23 | -3 |
| 24 | New York Jets | -4.29 | 5-9 | 0.0% | 22 | 20 | +1 |
| 23 | Oakland Raiders | -4.21 | 6-8 | 0.2% | 14 | 29 | +1 |
Last time we played, the answer was “probably not,” but things are now looking more dire. They have two games remaining and both are on the road. The Browns travel to Chicago this weekend and will close the season in Pittsburgh.
Factoring in home-field advantage and using our nERD ratings, we would expect Cleveland to be 9.5-point underdogs against the Bears and 19-point underdogs versus the Steelers (the actual line this week has Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite).
If we convert these theoretical lines to win expectancies, the Browns have about a 22% chance to win this week and a 7% chance to win next week. This means they have a 72.5% chance of losing both games and finishing 0-16 (0.78 * 0.93).
The actual Vegas moneyline (+230) implies that Cleveland has a 30% chance of winning this week, this leaves their chances of 0-16 at 65.1%. It’s far from a given, but it’s also more likely than not at this point.
In any case, the Browns are actually still not the worst team going by our numbers -- they have been better than the Colts and 49ers on a per-play basis -- so their historical ineptitude will probably be overstated if they do fall to 0-16.
