Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 16

Start the Kansas City Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? During the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 16, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Kansas City Chiefs are a 10.5-point favorite against the Miami Dolphins. Kansas City opened as 10-point favorites, but that line has crept in their favor.

Also, the total in this game has dropped. The game opened at a total of 45.0 points but has dropped 1.5 points to 43.5 at Pinnacle, per Sports Insights. The line could change as we head into the weekend, but this drop in the total looks good for the Kansas City D/ST.

Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total fell two points or more in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game. Also, when the total was 42.5 to 45.5 points, the average fantasy defense score was 7.8 points per game.

The Kansas City defense is priced at $4,500 on FanDuel, which ranks 11th among defenses. Kansas City's defense hasn't been great this season, but because they are in a prime spot, they are worth starting in tournaments.