5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Buffalo Bills' Rushing Offense
Between Oliver, Malcolm Brown, and likely others, you're going to have plenty of low-cost running backs to use this week. And you should use them. But we also don't want to ignore the upper tiers of pricing, especially when they're in a spot as peachy as that of LeSean McCoy.
The Buffalo Bills are another team that needs a win this week, and the Miami Dolphins' defense has seemed happy to oblige others in that quest throughout the season. They're 23rd against the pass overall -- allowing teams to generate scoring drives -- while sitting 17th against the rush from Week 10 on. They're just not a good unit.
When you're getting as much volume as McCoy has gotten the past three weeks, that favorable matchup makes everything so much sweeter. Here's a breakdown of his usage the past three games, starting with that snow-covered rendezvous in Week 14. Overall market share is the perentage of carries plus targets went McCoy's way in that given week.
| Past 3 Games | Rushes | Targets | Overall Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 14 | 32 | 0 | 47.8% |
| Week 15 | 20 | 5 | 42.4% |
| Week 16 | 17 | 7 | 38.7% |
That 38.7% market share in Week 16 came in a game the Bills lost by 21, which clearly is not the ideal script for running-back usage. But McCoy's getting fed as the Bills scramble for one of those last two playoff spots.
Game flow should be much more friendly here. Because of the split in motivations between the two teams, the Bills enter as three-point favorites despite the game's location in Miami. That's huge for McCoy, who has averaged 19.5 FanDuel points per game as a favorite this year compared to 12.1 as an underdog. The positive script is a bit less certain outside of Buffalo, but Vegas seems to think the Bills will be able to snag a win here.
With all of this said, we did just see this matchup between the two teams two weeks ago. In that one, McCoy turned his 20 carries into just 50 yards, though he salvaged his day by finding the end zone twice. Can we really trust him if his efficiency is going to be so mediocre?
This likely shouldn't be a huge issue for McCoy from a DFS perspective. More than anything, we want volume, and the past few games have shown that he's going to get that. Additionally, McCoy has largely been a league-average rusher this year, sitting 19th in Success Rate out of 42 running backs with at least 100 carries. He's a good back, and he's going to get volume in a must-win game. We can't turn that down even if we know the efficiency is far from guaranteed.
Kareem Hunt was a good illustration of that last week against this defense. He ran the ball a whopping 29 times, but he turned it into just 91 yards on the ground. It didn't matter, though, because Hunt found the end zone and added work through the air with four targets. McCoy's going to get similar volume. If the Dolphins revert to being the more giving defense they were before this mini stretch of improvement, McCoy could have a huge day.
There are going to be value guys who blow up this week, and we don't want to ignore them in order to plug in a familiar, comfortable face. But things do line up particularly well for McCoy. He brings a floor that those low-cost guys can't carry, meaning if you've got the salary, it's fully okay to rock with Shady here.
