5 Running Backs With Major Touchdown Upside for 2018
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
Marshawn Lynch is an exception to the "good offense" idea, but for as much as they're expected to be a below-average unit, we can also expect an uptick in red zone plays for the Oakland Raiders this season.
In 2017, their 89 plays inside the 20 were 11 fewer than any other team, despite the fact that they ranked a reasonable 22nd in points scored. Oddsmakers expect a similar finish from them this year, implying them to rank 21st in points scored, and numberFire's Power Rankings are even higher on the squad, projecting them to be 18th in offense.
Even if you don't like their output to improve under Jon Gruden, Oakland could see their ranking fall from where it was last season, and we could still expect an increase in red zone snaps because of just how big the disparity was in 2017.
It didn't show up in the raw numbers because of how few plays they ran, but Lynch's 66.7% market share of his team's red zone carries was good for fifth in the NFL in 2017.
Only 40.4% of the Raiders' red zone plays were runs, but if we do some quick and dirty math on that, that still would have meant 49 red zone rushing plays if they ran 122 snaps (the 22nd-most in the league in 2017) at that ratio. That would have meant an additional 8 carries for Lynch, if he kept the same market share.
That's obviously a pretty simplistic way to attack things -- and I'm not saying that 32 red zone carries should be a projection for Lynch in 2018 -- but it does help to illustrate just how much more interesting his 2017 stats may have been if the Raiders ran closer to expectation in the red zone.
Efficiency over a small sample doesn't mean a whole lot, but Lynch's 16.7% touchdown rate last year was still a solid mark (above the league average), and even if you're expecting him to lose a step with age, there's room for him to do that and also continue to offer middle-of-the-pack efficiency inside the 20.
The Raiders haven't added a ton to their backfield this summer, bringing in only Doug Martin, and so it looks to be a safe bet that Lynch will continue to dominate their touches near the goal line, positioning him well to consistently find his way into the end zone this year.
