5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 1

Too Many Mouths to Feed in Green Bay?

The Green Bay Packers are a team we can count on to do a ton of scoring now that Aaron Rodgers is healthy again. The last three full seasons for Rodgers (2016, 2015 and 2014) saw them finish 4th, 15th and 1st in points for. numberFire's models also have their offense ranked third in the NFL heading into the season.

Even though that's likely to translate to big red zone volume, things are still looking crowded on that front.

Only two players saw at least 34.0% of their team's red zone targets last year: Davante Adams and newly-acquired Jimmy Graham.

Graham was the only player to notch double-digit red zone scores, while 7 of Adams' 10 touchdowns on the year came from inside the 20. The correlation between receiving touchdowns and fantasy scoring in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues has an r-squared value of 0.80 for wide receivers and 0.76 for tight ends over the last three years, meaning that a drop in touchdowns for either will likely have a significant impact on their outlook for fantasy football. Yes, Jordy Nelson is gone, but he ranked only 46th in the NFL with an 18.2% target share last year, not nearly making up for Graham's appearance.

This also doesn't paint a pretty picture for the team's running backs, be it Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones or even Ty Montgomery.

From 2014 to 2016 (again, Rodgers' last 3 full seasons), the Packers have the league's second-highest red zone pass-to-run ratio, at 1.77-to-1. Adding one of the NFL's most prolific red zone weapons is a good sign they're going to continue to be very pass-heavy near the goal line.

While we see how the target distribution shakes out early in the year, the one player that looks like a lock to benefit will be Aaron Rodgers himself.