5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 1
Voids to Fill in the Passing Game
One of the simplest ways to identify players who stand to see additional red zone work is by looking at teams whose top red zone targets are leaving -- especially when they haven't brought in many replacement players.
By necessity, those teams will have players see increased workloads in scoring range. It's never a lock that there will be a single player than benefits, but even a bump of a few targets can have big impacts on touchdown production.
The 2018 season comes with some particularly big voids. If we look at the players with the highest market share of their team's red zone targets in 2017, we can immediately spot a few favorable situations.
| Player | 2017 Team | Targets | Target% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | SEA | 26 | 36.60% |
| Davante Adams | GB | 23 | 34.90% |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 24 | 33.80% |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 20 | 32.80% |
| Jarvis Landry | MIA | 23 | 32.40% |
Three of the five (Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant and Jarvis Landry) are no longer with their 2017 teams. So right away, the Seattle Seahawks vacate over one-third of their targets, while the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins both lose better than 32%.
Those teams' losses go deeper than their top targets as well.
The Seahawks also lost Paul Richardson this offseason, and overall 54.9% of their red zone targets from 2017 are unaccounted for. In Dallas, Jason Witten retired and 62.3% of their targets are up for grabs. Miami sits in between those two, vacating 56.3% of their targets.
As I outlined in my preseason look at wide receivers with big touchdown upside, these gaps make both Doug Baldwin and DeVante Parker great bets to see increased red zone work. Parker's injury is certainly a concern, and if he's not full-go for Week 1, Kenny Stills should also benefit in a big way.
Things aren't as clear in Dallas, but Cole Beasley's 7 red zone targets in 2017 are the most for any returning Cowboys player, and over the last three seasons, his 33 put him behind only Dez and Witten for third on the team, with a reasonable 17.1% market share. He and Terrence Williams (6 red zone targets in 2017, 23 since 2015) could be sneaky picks to see significant red zone work this year.
