5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 3

What Joe Mixon's Absence Means for Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals will be without Joe Mixon (knee) for a reported two to four weeks. This should mean a big increase in snaps for Giovani Bernard, but let's look at how it could affect the red zone offense as a whole.

The Bengals ran only five red zone snaps in Week 1, and Mixon carries the ball on three of those. In Week 2, they had much more success, running 15 snaps, and Mixon saw 4 carries and 1 target. That gives him a team-high 40.0% opportunity share, while nobody else in the offense has a mark above 20.0%.

The team has been fairly balanced in their red zone play-calling, with 9 runs and 11 passes, and we saw a similar approach in the tiny two-game sample that Mixon missed in 2017 as well, where they ran on 2 of their 5 red zone snaps (both times with Bernard). In the 7 games they played before naming Mixon the starter, they were again balanced, with 32 passes and 26 runs. Mixon and Jeremy Hill were the top dogs during that time, though, and Bernard only saw five opportunities.

With that sizable sample suggesting the Bengals don't want to go to Bernard in the red zone (much more reliable than our five-snap sample with Mixon out), we could see them get more pass-heavy.

That means big touchdown upside for Andy Dalton, while A.J. Green, fresh off a three-score game, should get plenty of opportunities to keep scoring. Green's four red zone targets are a team-high, and only one other player has more than one so far. His 36.4% target market share is dominant, and even if it falls (last year's league-high was 36.6%), a more pass-heavy approach would mean the volume should still be there for him.

If you're in a deep league, or maybe looking for a dynasty stash, a name worth knowing is Tra Carson. Rookie Mark Walton has received some buzz, but with the Bengals having shown a reluctance to go with Bernard in the red zone, the smaller Walton may not be the guy either. Carson profiles physically more like Mixon or Hill (his 227 pounds puts him closer to Mixon's 228 and Hill's 233 than to Walton's and Bernard's 202), so he could get some goal line touches over the next couple weeks.