5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 4
The Saints' Absurd Numbers
The New Orleans Saints' red zone numbers are so ridiculous and stand out so much, especially after this week's game against Atlanta, that it's well worth taking a dive into the numbers for the entire offense.
In Week 3 alone, the Saints ran 25 plays in the red zone. There are 14 teams that haven't reached that mark the entire 2018 season. They have run 54 such plays on the year, which is not only good for the league lead, but makes them one of only three teams that have even hit the 40-snap mark. With that being the case, it doesn't come as much of a surprise that their 11 red zone touchdowns also tie them for first in the NFL.
32 of their 54 plays have been passes, making them slightly more pass-heavy than the league average. That hasn't meant a decrease in opportunities for their running backs, though, as Alvin Kamara leads not only the Saints, but the entire NFL with 12 red zone targets. Looking at opportunities (carries + targets), Kamara's 27 are not only the most in the NFL by a big margin (the next-highest is 21), but his 56.3% share of his team's total opportunities ranks third. The only players with higher market shares are on teams that have tallied 12 or fewer red zone opportunities so far.
This volume is absolutely ridiculous (for context, the highest market share in 2017 fell below 45.0%), but it's also likely going to be coming down soon, with the return of Mark Ingram. Kamara still saw a strong market share with Ingram around last year, ranking 14th in the NFL at 27.5%, but that's obviously way below what we're seeing right now. We can attribute a big part of his boost to the absence of Ingram, who ranked 11th in the NFL and 1st on the Saints with a 29.4% market share. Interestingly, if you add those together you get 56.9% -- almost exactly where Kamara sits right now.
And as for the other pass catchers in New Orleans? Only Michael Thomas has been relevant inside the 20. His 9 targets (31.0% market share) are second on the team only to Kamara, and are good for third in the NFL. The arrival of Ingram isn't likely to cut into his work, and considering we only saw five wideouts post red zone target market shares above 30.0% last year, Thomas should continue to offer some of the highest touchdown upside in the NFL.
Naturally, spending so much time inside the red zone also means that Drew Brees, who has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal for red zone weapons, should continue racking up big touchdown numbers -- especially while Kamara is being fed the ball in the passing game instead of on the ground.
