Week 4 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under: 56

Chiefs Implied Team Total: 30.25
Denver Broncos 25.75

Another week, another monstrous team total attached to quarterback wunderkind Patrick Mahomes. Last week's Kansas City Chiefs game certainly didn't disappoint, as a total 65 points were scored, albeit in frustrating fashion. Chris Conley and Demetrius Harris' touchdowns weren't helping anybody in fantasy football. Amazingly, even on the road against a strong Denver Broncos defense, the over/under is again set at 56 points, and the Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites. While this makes Kansas City's playmakers as enticing as ever, the real value can be found in targeting their opponents.

Note: This game is Monday night so it's not on the main slate, but it's still worth highlighting with easily the highest over/under of the week.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
FanDuel Price: $6,700

Don't look know, but Emmanuel Sanders is the WR6 in PPR leagues through the first three weeks of the season. While many sharp fantasy analysts were high on him this offseason, his start has certainly blown past those expectations. Sanders has caught 19/23 targets so far this year (good for a sterling 82.6% Catch Rate) and ranks top-13 in receptions, air yards and receiving yards, per PlayerProfiler. Interestingly, Sanders hasn't seen an end zone or a red zone target despite seeing a 21.5% target market share, something that's bound for regression. Sanders is running 67% of his routes in the slot. The Chiefs have been hit hard in the slot by Keenan Allen (8 catches, 108 yards, 1 touchdown) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (13 catches, 121 yards, 1 touchdown) already, while Chiefs opponents are averaging 30.7 points per game.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $7,800

There are plenty of reasons to use Tyreek Hill in GPP lineups this week. As arguably the league's most explosive playmaker tied to Mahomes, you already know most of them. But there are other factors working in his favor this week as well. Hill flopped at roughly 20% GPP ownership last week. Similar to why we were on Travis Kelce after a down Week 1, this article will consistently target proven fantasy scorers coming off down weeks at high ownership. Hill fits the bill and he's actually $400 cheaper this week, checking in as the 12th-most expensive receiver on the Thursday-Monday slate. Tyreek has never struggled against the Broncos and it's worth pointing out he averages seven more fantasy points per game on the road so far in his career.

Others to Consider

No need to mince words: Patrick Mahomes ($8,900) is a must-play every week. It's just a matter of finding the salary to do so. Travis Kelce ($7,700) is creeping close to Rob Gronkowski in price. It seems unlikely to keep his ownership down after consecutive big games, but the matchup is good as the Broncos again are struggling to contain tight ends. Both are playable in GPPs and cash.

Despite 16 FanDuel points in back-to-back weeks, Sammy Watkins' ($6,400) price hasn't moved much. Previously a splash-play receiver, Watkins is maintaining a strong enough target share to also warrant every-week GPP consideration. I'm not chasing Chris Conley ($4,500) scoring a touchdown three weeks in a row.

Kareem Hunt ($7,900) came through with two bunny touchdowns last week, but his paltry target numbers and lack of third-down snaps render him unplayable in cash until further notice. Denver ranks third-best in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, while Hunt managed just 2.2 yards per carry against this defense last year.

The cheap GPP stack here is definitely Case Keenum ($6,500). Kansas City is scoring at will without showing an ability to stop opposing offenses, checking in as our models' second-worst defense Keenum has been up-and-down to start the year, but he has great weapons, a 22-point game on his resume already, and sneaky rushing ability. DFS players are sharp enough that he'll be owned, but at this price he's one of the most enticing quarterback options this weekend.

Given his target share in a potential shootout, Demaryius Thomas ($6,500) is technically in play. But we can do better. Given his price and skillset, I'd rather GPP punt with Courtland Sutton ($4,700) and hope for a big play. Sutton saw 11 targets across the first two weeks, has played 79.9% of the team's snaps over the last two weeks, and has big play ability.