5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Buy A.J. Green in a Shootout

The Cincinnati Bengals are underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons this week, and it's a game with a 51-point over/under. The Falcons' defense crumbled last week, no doubt in part because of their mounting injuries. They have lost Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, and Ricardo Allen so far and have a banged up pass-rush unit.

Defense will be hard to come by this game, and A.J. Green has thrived in similar situations.

In games with an over/under of at least 48 points, Green has crushed, averaging 2.8 more half-PPR fantasy points per game on the back of an increase in targets and efficiency. Against a defense in shambles, Green should be well worth his $8,500 price tag.