5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers' Passing Offense
Sometimes, you gotta do it for the gif. That means using Philip Rivers whenever you possibly can and diving into the endless catalog of gems that is a Rivers Giphy search.
This week seems to be the perfect spot to do so. Not only do the Chargers have the highest implied team total on the main slate, but they're facing a San Francisco 49ers defense that is banged up and struggling to start the year.
The 49ers are dealing with more injuries than just the one to Jimmy Garoppolo. Cornerback Richard Sherman is also expected to miss this game due to a calf strain, thinning out a secondary that couldn't afford to lose the vet.
Even with Sherman playing the first three games, the 49ers rank 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They have allowed multiple touchdown passes in each game, and the past two quarterbacks to face them have both thrown for at least 310 yards and 3 touchdowns. Taking Sherman out of the equation doesn't figure to help those numbers.
It also doesn't help that the depleted 49ers will have to face a team led by Rivers. Beyond his endless gif-ability, Rivers is a pretty darn good quarterback, too.
Through three games, Rivers ranks fourth in Passing NEP per drop back out of 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs. That is despite having 72.2% of his pass attempts come while trailing, a scenario that usually leads to decreased efficiency as it allows the defense to assume with better certainty that a pass is coming. It certainly hasn't bothered Rivers.
That's part of the reason we can feel good about Rivers even as a big favorite. If he's efficient, he can rack up fantasy points without heavy volume. And given that C.J. Beathard is starting for the opponent, that's fully within the realm of possibilities.
But if you're worried about game flow, the easy solution is to stack Rivers with Melvin Gordon. Not only are you safeguarding against game flow, but the two do naturally pair well together.
Gordon's target market share entering Week 4 is 22.6%. That's despite missing most of the second half of their game against the Buffalo Bills due to injury. Gordon had seven targets in the first half of that game, including two inside the 10-yard line. He's a legit piece in this Chargers passing attack.
By using Rivers and Gordon, you're getting access to every touchdown the Chargers score, unless Austin Ekeler binks one on the ground. On top of that, you'll get the double-dip in points when Rivers throws to Gordon and be safe no matter what the gameflow is. There's a lot to like in that.
For those of you who want a more traditional stack, there are reasons to like both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Even with Williams healthy and Gordon getting an increased piece of the passing-game pie, Allen has maintained a healthy role in the offense. He has 24.5% of the overall targets, 20.8% of the deep targets, and 25.0% of the red-zone targets thus far. Those numbers don't parallel what Allen had last year, but it's a tall task to push him toward those numbers.
Even without massive market-share marks, Allen notched 8 receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. He missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday, so you'll have to track Allen throughout the weekend, but he's certainly in play if he's able to go.
If not, that will open up even more opportunities for Williams. With Travis Benjamin sidelined the past two weeks, Williams has shown why he was a top-10 pick by hauling in three touchdowns on just nine targets. He has played more than two-thirds of the snaps in both games and demonstrated he has the ability to hit paydirt. For $6,300, Williams is in play even if Allen is good to go on Sunday.
