5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5

Ride Dalton's Hot Streak as a Big Favorite

Andy Dalton has started the 2018 season hot, recording a 0.25 Passing Net Expected Points per drop back (NEP measures situation-adjusted value above or below expectation), the seventh-best mark in the league, according to our player analytics. He's also led them to the third-best offense per numberFire's Power Rankings. This success is due, in part, to the emergence of Tyler Boyd, who has forced defenses to focus on more than just A.J. Green.

This week, Dalton gets the Miami Dolphins as a 5.5-point favorite. In games where he has been favored by 5.5 or more, Dalton averages 21.4 fantasy points per game. In all other games, he scores 19.4 points. As a heavy favorite against a defense that got exposed last week, giving 38 to the New England Patriots, Dalton is a safe play in all formats.