5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5

Detroit Lions' Passing Offense

Most of the focus for this game is revolving around the Green Bay Packers' offense with their entire pass-catching corps dealing with injuries. That's going to open up some value on their side of things. But don't forget about the home team.

It has been a strange season for the Detroit Lions, to say the least. They got punched in the mouth on national television to start things off, have lost a pair of games since then, and their only win is against the New England Patriots. Good luck explaining how and when this team is going to produce.

Matthew Stafford, however, likely does not deserve to get the brunt of the blame. Yes, he struggled mightily against the New York Jets, but they're also numberFire's third-ranked pass defense through four weeks. He has been much better since then.

Over the past three games, Stafford has averaged 0.30 Passing NEP per drop back. If that were his full-season mark, it would rank sixth among all quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs. Instead, Stafford is down in 18th with that one game weighing down his overall efficiency.

The Packers' defense is in a similar boat where the full-seasons stats look a bit different after you dig in deeper.

The Packers enter this game ranked 13th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, which, again, accounts for the teams they've faced. The problem is that they've faced only one good quarterback in this time, and he lit them aflame.

The table below shows the game-by-game output of quarterbacks facing the Packers (with "Passing NEP/P" standing for Passing NEP per drop back). When the defense has faced lower-level units, it has been a force, as you would expect. That didn't happen when they went up against Kirk Cousins.

Cousins popped off for 425 yards and 4 touchdowns against them, and that game was in Lambeau. Even Alex Smith was able to shred them, though it was on lower volume after Washington gained an early lead. It looks like the Packers' defense is flying high off those two games against inexperienced passers.

Stafford isn't that. With this game being in Detroit in a controlled environment, it's easy to see a scenario in which Stafford's recent uptick continues.

Outside of being at home, indoors, and against a middling defense, Stafford's other advantage is that he'll cost you $7,600 on FanDuel. That's more than the potential chalk of the week in Blake Bortles, but it's also less than others like Roethlisberger, Goff, and Matt Ryan. On a slate where we're hunting for value, that's quite helpful.

The next question is where you go in stacking Stafford. It's a difficult problem, but there's likely not a wrong answer.

Here's how the targets have been divvied up through the first four weeks for the Lions' pass-catchers. All three are getting their volume, and there's something to like about each.

If you can afford Golden Tate, he's still clearly the top option. Not only does he get the bulk targets, but he still gets some looks down the field, as well. That's fully acceptable at $7,400.

Marvin Jones isn't a cash-game play due to his overall volume. But he gets so many high-leverage targets that it's hard to ignore him in tournaments. Jones has multiple deep targets in three of four games this year, and he has 10 end-zone targets this year, according to Brandon Gdula of numberFire. Jones hasn't had a monster game yet, but the numbers say that's well within his range of outcomes.

Kenny Golladay is more of a blend of the two. He has more overall volume than Jones with more high-leverage volume than Tate. He's also the cheapest at $6,300. Golladay has had at least 9.4 FanDuel points in every game this year despite snagging just two touchdowns. If you're looking to play it safer in tournaments than Jones but still want to boogie a bit, then Golladay's your preferred option.