5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7

Philadelphia Eagles' Rushing Offense

Good luck trying to find a cheap, palatable running back for Sunday's main slate. It's probably not happening. More often than not, you're going to want to pay up for guys like Gurley, Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey.

There is one possible exception, though, sitting down at $5,800. That's Wendell Smallwood going up against the Carolina Panthers.

In order to be in play for DFS, you've gotta get volume. In the first game without Jay Ajayi, Smallwood got a good amount of that.

While facing the Giants, Smallwood had 18 carries and 2 targets, ahead of Corey Clement with his 11 carries and 3 targets. Smallwood also played 62.0% of the snaps with Clement at 36.6%. That makes it seem like Smallwood will be the top option in the backfield going forward.

One potential rebuttal to that is that Clement was coming off of a quad injury for that game. He was questionable each of the previous three games, sitting out two of them, the two in which Ajayi was active. Given that this game took place on a Thursday, you could see a situation in which they were simply easing Clement back into action.

There are two potential complications with this theory, though.

First, Smallwood was taking action away from Clement even before Clement got hurt. In Week 2 when Ajayi played just part of the game due to a back injury, Smallwood out-carried Clement, seven to six. With Ajayi out the following week, the split was 16 carries and 4 targets for Clement and 10 carries and 5 targets for Smallwood. Smallwood also got five targets the following week with Ajayi active.

Second, the points in the game in which Clement was used make it seem like he wasn't still coming back from an injury. The Eagles waxed the Giants in that one, leading 31-13 entering the fourth quarter. But Clement was still on the field even with the game in hand.

In the first three quarters, Smallwood had 13 carries and 2 targets compared to 7 carries and 2 targets for Clement. The split was five to four in favor of Smallwood in the fourth quarter, and all four of Clement's carries came on the Eagles' final drive of the game. If he were banged up, he probably wouldn't be getting run late in a 34-13 game.

It's possible that Clement will carve out a larger role in Week 7 with an additional week to rest up, but most of the signs seem to point to Smallwood being the top guy. That could lead to good things against this defense.

The Panthers enter Week 7 ranked 22nd against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. That's even with Luke Kuechly being healthy all year long.

Last week, a banged-up Adrian Peterson went for 97 yards on 17 carries with a 47.1% Success Rate against this defense. Giovani Bernard had 61 yards on just 12 carries with a 50.0% Success Rate in Week 3. And Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith combined to turn 25 carries into 153 yards in Week 2. Despite their personnel, this Panthers defense doesn't seem to be one we need to fear targeting with opposing running backs.

Again, there is still some risk here that Clement's workload could spring back up. But with Smallwood's Success Rate at 48.8% compared to 34.2% for Clement, it's possible they're just rewarding him for solid performance. If they go back to feeding him, Smallwood has the potential to be a steal at $5,800.