5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 8

Detroit Lions' Passing Offense

This game is one that could be a bit sluggish from a pace perspective. As noted by Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus in his weekly pace column, both the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks have been slowing things down big time over the past month, and that does matter quite a bit for fantasy football.

There seems to be a scenario, though, in which these teams could exchange some blows, forcing them to kick things up a notch. If that does happen, we could see a resurgence for both passing offenses.

The main focus here is on the Detroit side of the ball, which may seem a bit odd. The Seahawks' defense is ranked fifth against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. They're also third in pass defense DVOA on Football Outsiders, so it's not just numberFire's metrics that are diggin' the Hawks. So why on earth are we talking about them in a matchups column?

Both these metrics account for the schedule that a team has faced, which is critical for any season-long metric, especially this time of the year. But it's hard to truly factor in all the blessings that the schedule-makers have thrown Seattle's way.

The table below shows the quarterbacks who have faced Seattle this year. It also shows where they rank in Passing NEP per drop back and their Passing NEP per drop back mark for that individual game against the Seahawks. The league-average Passing NEP per drop back for the season is 0.11. This takes a bit of the luster off the Seahawks' impressive marks.

In six games, the Seahawks have managed to face just one quarterback who ranks in the top 15 in Passing NEP per drop back. That one quarterback -- Jared Goff -- had well-above-average efficiency marks against the Seahawks despite losing both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp during that game while playing in Seattle. Heck, even Josh Rosen and the Arizona Cardinals' sputtering offense looked impressive against this unit.

The Rosen outing occurred in the same game where Earl Thomas got hurt, and the Goff game took place the week after that. They did beat up on Derek Carr, but that game was in London, and Carr lost both Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts during the game while also getting injured himself. You can see why the metrics do dig the Seahawks, and they're certainly not wrong, but it doesn't seem like a defense we should be avoiding.

Although the Seahawks are coming off a bye, they step into a tough spot this weekend. Matthew Stafford will become the second top-15 quarterback they have faced as he enters this week ranked ninth, even when you include his wretched Week 1 performance. Since then, he has 11 touchdowns to 1 interception.

The problem is that we haven't gotten to notice this from Stafford because the volume has suddenly disappeared. Over the past four games, his maximum for pass attempts is 36, and he has been below 30 in back-to-back outings. We want to favor efficiency over volume at quarterback, but that's not enough juice to squeeze with how high quarterback scoring has been this year.

This is another situation where it helps to zoom in a bit.

The first game in that stretch was against the New England Patriots. There, the Lions got out to a 13-0 lead and held on to win, 26-10. You'd be a fool to throw a bunch and give Tom Brady extra possessions, so that one is logical.

The next week, they were on the road to face the Dallas Cowboys, a team that always puts a bit of a lid on the opposing offense's volume. Stafford still managed to throw for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, which won't hurt matters at all.

After that was another game similar to what happened against New England. The Lions jumped out to a 24-0 lead against Aaron Rodgers, another guy you don't want to give extra volume. It makes sense there that Stafford threw just 26 times.

Finally, you had last week against the Miami Dolphins when Detroit had a 20-7 lead early in the 3rd quarter and rode Kerryon Johnson into the ground.

The common thread here? The Lions have gotten ahead big in three of the games and proceeded to just sit on the football, and two of those games brought extra incentive to keep the opposing offense off the field. It's understandable why the volume has suddenly shot down for Stafford.

That could very well happen again this week, but there's reason to believe the Seahawks can keep things close. They're coming off a bye, and the Lions' pass defense is ranked 30th, according to numberFire's metrics. Russell Wilson is another guy who has been efficient on low volume, meaning we could see these two teams put up some points through the air.

It's very possible this game winds up being just another slugfest between two teams that want to run the football. But with both team's passing defenses showing holes and both quarterbacks trending up, there's a scenario in which they just go bonkers. For tournaments, that's pretty appealing, especially with Stafford at $7,300 on FanDuel and Wilson at $7,400.

The big question with Stafford is with which receiver you should pair him. There may not be a wrong answer.

Because things have remained largely static within this group from a health and role perspective, it does make sense to look at the full-season market share numbers. Here's how those break down for the top three options.

With Theo Riddick out last week (which seems likely again in Week 8), Golden Tate had 6 of 22 targets. He can help fill that short void, and his overall target share has been healthy all season. Tate is the one you want for cash games if you can afford him.

Kenny Golladay's numbers across the board seem a bit underwhelming, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up monster numbers throughout the year. He has 89 or more yards in 3 games, including 114 back in Week 1. With his talents, a two-touchdown day is never out of the question, either. He likely holds an edge over Tate from a tournament perspective.

As for Marvin Jones, his role has been pretty bleak of late. He has had eight targets total in the past two games, and he hasn't had multiple deep targets in a game since Week 3. But you still can't write him off.

Jones is just $6,000, and as mentioned, nothing has really changed with each player's role since the beginning of the season. We shouldn't just pretend those early-season bombs don't exist anymore. On top of that, he still is tied for third in the league with 11 end-zone targets this year, trailing only A.J. Green and Odell Beckham. A big game is still very much within the range of outcomes for Jones, justifying continued exposure in tournaments until he pops off.