5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15
Minnesota Vikings' Rushing Offense
It has been a rough couple of months for the Minnesota Vikings. They're currently the 6 seed in the NFC, but they've scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of the past 6 games, leading to this week's firing of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. That's not going to cut it when you've got a high-paid quarterback paired with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.
A date with the Miami Dolphins may be just what the Norse gods ordered.
The Dolphins are also still in the playoff hunt, but it's not because of their defense. They're currently numberFire's 30th-ranked defense when you adjust for the schedule, sitting 29th against the pass and 23rd against the rush. Playing in the AFC East has just allowed that to fly under the radar with a slew of bad offenses on the schedule.
Of the Dolphins' 13 games this year, 3 have been against offenses ranked 30th or worse. They've faced only four top-10 offenses by numberFire's metrics, and those offenses have averaged 32.3 points per game with at least 27 in each. The defense has also been abysmal when the team has been forced to leave Miami.
Here's a look at what running backs have done against the Dolphins based on where the game has been played. "Rushing NEP/P" is short for Rushing NEP per carry, which shows the expected points added on a per-carry basis. "Success Rate" is the percentage of rushes that have increased the team's expected points for the drive.
| RBs vs. Dolphins | Yards Per Carry | Rushing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| In Miami | 4.16 | -0.07 | 37.6% |
| Outside Miami | 4.91 | 0.04 | 35.3% |
Although the Success Rate declines, opposing backs have been able to bust off some big plays here. That has allowed Sony Michel, Lamar Miller, and Aaron Jones to all pop them for at least 112 rushing yards, and Joe Mixon got close with his 93. Kerryon Johnson ran up the total for 158, but that game was in Miami.
The Vikings have been terrible on the ground this year, and with their offensive line, that's not going to change. But there's still reason to believe they could get Dalvin Cook going here.
This Dolphins defense has faced other struggling backs throughout the course of the year. Miller has a below-average Success Rate, but as mentioned, he had a big day against them with 133 rushing yards. Dion Lewis has the worst Success Rate in the league among backs with at least 100 carries, but he still racked up 75 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in Week 1. Jordan Howard is 29th in Success Rate but still averaged 4.93 yards per carry against this team. That's why their schedule-adjusted metrics are so poor.
Additionally, the personnel on the Vikings' offensive line has been fluid all year long. They seem to have finally found the five best players to plug in up front, but a tough schedule has masked any potential gains.
The team moved center Pat Elflein back into the starting lineup in Week 4 after he spent training camp recovering from offseason surgeries. Then, left tackle Riley Reiff went down in Week 5, forcing another shift up front. Reiff's injury allowed second-round rookie Brian O'Neill to get a shot at right tackle, a job he has held ever since. With Reiff returning from injury in Week 9 and guard Tom Compton coming back in Week 11, the Vikings have started the same five bodies up front in four straight games.
The results thus far have been underwhelming. The Vikings' backs have a 32.8% Success Rate in this four-game stretch. However, that's actually up from 31.7% prior to this, and it has come against some stout fronts. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears have top-six defenses against the rush, forming half of the sample in this time.
In 19 carries against the Patriots and Green Bay Packers, Cook averaged 5.95 yards per carry with a 42.1% Success Rate. Combine this with how bad the Dolphins' defense has been on the road, and you've at least got some reason for hope.
It's very possible that this offense, though, is just trash and they will continue to sputter despite the changeover. That would certainly put a dent in Cook's ceiling. But the floor has been pretty decent for him even through the struggles.
In four games since the bye week, Cook has played at least 77% of the team's snaps four times. That has allowed him to develop a decent role in the passing game as he has garnered 14.8% of the team's targets in this stretch. Because of this, Cook has scored at least 14.6 FanDuel points in three straight games, even without the benefit of a touchdown in one of those.
Finally, we know that even if the Vikings don't run the ball effectively, they're at least going to give it a shot. Head coach Mike Zimmer has been vocal about wanting to run the football, and -- for better or for worse -- he's likely going to get his wish with the firing of DeFilippo.
The Vikings enter this game as seven-point home favorites, a spread that sets up well for a running back to get some volume. Cook has a good matchup, his offensive line is likely in the best shape it has been all year, and he's getting the type of work in the passing game that we so desperately need for fantasy. With his salary still at $6,200, now might not be a bad time to buy low and see if the change can help Cook and the Vikings start a late-season surge.
