Week 15 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Hello, Doug Baldwin
Receiving Market Shares
1. Doug Baldwin Is Rising
Fantasy owners who have owned Doug Baldwin in 2018 have not been treated to a pleasant experience. But he popped for a two-score game this past week.
Despite seeing a 19% target share, according to airyards.com, Baldwin delivered 4 receptions for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday. His average depth of target was 14.7 -- a good number for a guy who spends a lot of time in the slot.
The Seattle Seahawks have been a very run-heavy team this year, and that coupled with Baldwin battling various ailments has basically doomed the wideout in 2018. But he's been gaining steam and finally had his big game this past week.
Over the past three games in which he's played, Baldwin has accounted for a team-best 21% target share while seeing 26% of the Seahawks' air yards, which ties Tyler Lockett for tops on the team. In that span, no other Seattle wideout has more than a 13% target share. Baldwin has played 81%, 93% and 90% of snaps in his past three.
He has re-established himself as the go-to dude in Seattle, and now he's got a nice home matchup with the Chiefs. It's a game with a 53.0-point over under, so Seattle may have to throw more than usual.
After flopping for most of 2018, Baldwin can be trusted as a WR3/flex option in title week.
2. Take Notice of Tim Patrick
Tim Patrick has inherited the Demaryius Thomas role, which was expected to slide to Courtland Sutton. Now, Sutton is still a solid player, but as the Denver Broncos are currently constructed, Patrick is seeing a consistent market share with Case Keenum under center.
DaeSean Hamilton has moved right into the Emmanuel Sanders role for Denver, but schemes and nagging injuries have derailed Sutton’s full immersion into the Denver offense.
Over the past two weeks, Hamilton and Patrick are seeing a 32% air yards market share, with Hamilton's 23% target share leading the team. Patrick's target share isn't far back, at 21%, but Sutton's is see just 13% of the looks.
This past weekend, Patrick did more with his target share of 20% than Hamilton did with his 43% share. Hamilton received 12 targets, totaling only 46 yards on his 7 grabs. Patrick had 8 targets and came away with 5 catches and 65 yards receiving. It was the second straight week Patrick led the team in receiving yards.
At this point, Sutton can't really be trusted in season-long leagues. And while Hamilton and Patrick do have some risk, this is undoubtedly a nice spot for the passing game this week as they take on the Raiders. In PPR formats, Hamilton is likely the way to go, but Patrick is in play, as well.
