5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
Cleveland Browns' Passing Offense
If we're going to talk about a cooking show, we have to bring up a dude with "bake" in his name, right? This feels like a binding legal agreement. Regardless, Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns are in a plus spot this week.
The Browns are hosting the Bengals, the second time these two teams have faced each other in five weeks. That's a concern as it means the two teams are familiar with each other, and we generally try to avoid that in DFS.
The big issue in these rematches is that a quarterback's expected efficiency decreases in spots like this. But with Mayfield, even if his efficiency does come down, he could still ball out. We moreso have to consider whether he'll get enough volume.
Let's start with the efficiency side of things and address why that's not a red flag this week. The reason is that the Bengals are too trashy for it to matter.
For the full season, the Bengals rank 23rd against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. But as with other teams we've discussed, they've been much worse than that recently.
The inflection point for the Bengals seems to be their bye week in Week 9. They had a bunch of injuries heading into then, and they have been brutal ever since, including a torching at the hands of Mayfield in Cincinnati.
| QBs vs. Bengals | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Bye | 19 | 10 | 0.19 | 49.7% |
| Since | 11 | 1 | 0.30 | 51.5% |
The Bengals had been able to survive basically off of turnovers alone. Once those interceptions dried up, so did their ability to stop opposing offenses.
That's key for Mayfield as he has been able to come through in plus matchups this season. Sunday will be the seventh time he has faced a team ranked in the bottom half of the league in schedule-adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics. Here's how he has performed in those compared to teams in the top half of the league.
| Mayfield in 2018 | TDs | INTs | Yards Per Attempt | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Against Top-16 Pass Defenses | 8 | 6 | 6.29 | 5.73 |
| Against Bottom-16 Pass Defenses | 13 | 5 | 8.71 | 8.88 |
In an ideal world, quarterbacks would excel no matter what defense they were facing. But that doesn't happen often. The best alternative is that a quarterback's best games can be predictable. That's what we've got with Mayfield.
That sample above even includes some games when Todd Haley was still calling plays for the Browns. Since Freddie Kitchens took over, Mayfield has averaged 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back with a 55.0% Success Rate against all opponents. If those were his full-season numbers, he would rank sixth and second, respectively, among qualified quarterbacks. Even if his efficiency does go down against a familiar opponent, he should still produce above-average marks.
Partially because Mayfield has been so efficient, though, his volume hasn't always been overly attractive. In the four games the Browns have won since Kitchens took over, Mayfield has averaged just 24.8 attempts per game, maxing out at 31 last Saturday. We'd ideally like a bit more to squeeze than that.
But even with that muted volume, Mayfield has still been able to come through. In Weeks 10 and 12, he threw just 46 passes, but he still managed to score 22.64 and 25.92 FanDuel points, respectively. Although we'd love for him to be chucking deeper into a game, he doesn't necessarily need to in order to have a great fantasy output.
Mayfield is $7,700 this week, which isn't a cheap salary by any means. But with how good he has been in favorable matchups and how bad the Bengals' defense has been since the bye, he's not priced out of consideration by any means.
One potential snag with using Mayfield in a tournament is that it's hard to stack him. Ever since Kitchens took over, the team has been spreading the ball around freely. Here are the market shares for their top passing-game targets in this time with a "deep" target being any throw at least 16 yards downfield.
| With Kitchens | FanDuel Salary | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | $6,300 | 20.8% | 25.0% | 11.8% |
| David Njoku | $5,300 | 14.2% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
| Breshad Perriman | $5,100 | 8.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Callaway | $5,100 | 14.2% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
Clearly, this strategy has worked for the Browns, given Mayfield's efficiency numbers. It's just not overly attractive for DFS purposes.
There is an alternative route to rolling Mayfield in a traditional stack. Instead, you could opt to pair him with Nick Chubb at $7,900.
Chubb doesn't get a ton of work in the passing game with just 9.3% of the targets since Kitchens took over. But he does have four red-zone targets in that time, which is tied for the team lead, meaning you could get some double-dip action if Mayfield hits Chubb in close again.
The other benefit is that you're a bit safeguarded if the Browns build a big lead. Let's say they get out front early on the arm of Mayfield and they decide to run the ball. That's a bummer for Mayfield as it will lead to less volume down the stretch for him. But your lineups will still benefit as that volume will instead be funneled Chubb's way.
Since Kitchens took over, the Browns have accumulated 2,280 yards from scrimmage as a team; 2,157 of those (94.6%) have been tied to either Mayfield or Chubb, along with 18 of 19 offensive touchdowns (the lone exception being a Jarvis Landry rushing score). If you use Mayfield with Chubb, you will basically benefit from almost every yard and every touchdown that the Browns accumulate. With such a poor defense on the other side of the field this week, there seems to be plenty of incentive to do so.
